This is just a pointer to an article. The article is short and mostly is just an embedded video:
It’s Bannon, so a bit breathless… Interviewing Steve Cortes, who I’ve watched over many years on other Financial News TV shows and generally has clue.
BANNONS WAR ROOM AUGUST 15, 2022
‘Largest Drop Ever’: Cortes Explains Crucial Indexes To Understanding The American Economy
Points at this video (that’s on Rumble so I can’t do an embed, so hit the link)
Mostly what it comes down to is a reference to an “insiders insider call” by J. Diamond to the richest of the rich about something big coming, and looking at the rate of repo’s of cars and expectations of foreclosures (about 5 million).
The general claim is that the USA and China are both headed into a recession together and it’s likely to get a lot worse. Largely driven by all the money printing causing rampant real inflation, dropping real wages, and folks just can’t pay the rent after buying food and fuel. (So forget buying that Chinese Junk you don’t really need…)
I need to do more “proving up” of the assertions, but don’t see anything obviously wrong at first review. Plus Steve Cortes is usually pretty careful.
Anyway, watch the Rumble Video and see what you think.
Me? I’ve got most of my “Prep” back in condition, and in about 2 weeks will have most of my “usual tools and stuff” in the house (all of it in about 1.5 months, or by October). So I’m pretty sure I’ll be doing OK even if the economy does go sideways.
I have no car payments. I have no house payment. I have no personal debt. I have a Government Paycheck via Social Security / Medicare, with a built in inflation escalator (though subject to statistical games…). I’m presently cash flow positive due to the “no payments and no debt” condition. I have enough dirt to grow enough fresh vegetables that the “Prep” food will be more interesting ;-) I think that puts me ahead of the game compared to most folks in the USA.
Musings from the Chiefio 
@EM: Very good video and more than a little sobering. Don’t anyone happen to have a link to the short video Bannon references from about 00:15 to 00:30?
“I have no car payments. I have no house payment. I have no personal debt. I have a Government Paycheck via Social Security / Medicare, with a built in inflation escalator (though subject to statistical games…). I’m presently cash flow positive due to the “no payments and no debt” condition. I have enough dirt to grow enough fresh vegetables that the “Prep” food will be more interesting”
That is pretty much my same condition, and done for the same reasons. I do keep some personal debt, but only if I can get it at zero percent and am ready to pay it whenever convenient. The only major differences between us is that I have moved to a more rural area than you — although not quite so good for year-round gardening!
Here’s to a WONDERFUL experience setting up your new place. And here is to a prayer that ten years from now we can look back and say, “That turned out much better than I expected!”
@TTN:
Yeah, not fully rural due to Spousal Requests… but on the edge of rural. Go about 2 miles from me and it is real rural. Go 20 miles and it is cows and trees. I’m hoping to add a “bug out dirt” spot “one hurricane width” away at some point.
In an Aw Shit, the nearby rural will be selling beef and more “off the truck” and we’ll be in a close position to be first buyers.
Biggest counter point to the “not quite rural” is that there’s lakes all around me. LOTS of fishing is available (not to mention that in a real Aw Shit the gators & turtles go on the plate too… but I doubt Florida will ever get that dire.)
Basically, there’s a huge wet “commons” in walking distance in several directions ;-)
If things start looking too bad, I’ll have to get a “man portable” boat… for fishing those spots you just can’t reach from the bank. Left my Kayak behind in California. Thinking some other more fishing oriented thing would be better, but that’s for another day… maybe something like this (only 123 lbs, so a small cart would work)
https://directboats.com/20babaso.html
though making a 20 lb boat has a certain attraction ;-)
https://christinedemerchant.com/boat-styles-ultra-light.html
http://www.gaboats.com/boats/robroy14.html
Thanks for this and many other posts. This one is highly relevant.
As of this morning the Nasdaq index is up 14.93% for the month!
Cortez says that mortgage rates are exploding with perhaps 5.4 million mortgagees in danger of foreclosure and real wages collapsing for the majority of wage earners.
This won’t be solved by printing money or lowering interest rates. ‘Helicopter money’.
is likely to go straight to China.
Dimon from JP Morgan tells his clients that there is a 40-60% chance of a depression or ‘something worse’.
Seems to me that the fundamental problem is the appropriation of most of the proceeds of production by the top 1% of earners to the detriment of the rest of the income spectrum. JP Morgan has played an important role in this.
JK Galbraith identified ‘irrational exuberance’ in the late stage of the business cycle.
Is the political system robust enough to respond effectively?
What about the voters? Are they in good shape mentally and physiologically?
‘Irrational exuberance’ is plainly related to inability to discern causation and evaluate hypotheses.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20392273/ The neuropsychology of delusions “the region of the brain specifically involved in hypothesis evaluation (and therefore, according to the two-factor theory, impaired in people with delusions) is the right lateral prefrontal cortex.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20392273/ Prefrontal Cortex and Drug Abuse Vulnerability
A major challenge in drug abuse prevention and treatment rests with improving intervention strategies aimed at strengthening PFC inhibitory systems among at-risk individuals.
So, I want to know when, if ever, the Nasdaq index is going to reflect reality.
Came across this gem from 2009 where economists were asking each other how they failed to predict the 2008 stock market crash. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/economists-explain-why-hints-of-the-economic-crisis-eluded-them
ANDREW LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: It turns out that neuroscientists have shown that financial gain triggers the exact same reward circuitry in the brain that cocaine does.
So when you’re making money, you’re actually engaged in a kind of activity that generates a drug-induced stupor in much the same way that having a few drinks or being on cocaine would actually make you relax and be a lot less concerned about risk.
Now, if you take it to the extreme, if you take hallucinogenics, where not only do you not worry about the risks, but you don’t even see the risks, that can get to a situation where you walk off a 30-story building because you think you can fly.
@EM Oooooh! Nice boat links! There is certainly an appeal to a very light one or two person boat. Back in the late 1800s and early 1900s there was some enthusiasm for papier mache canoes. They often had a final exterior layer of more abrasion resistant cloth laminated over the paper layers. These days, I would make a frame of either small dimensioned lumber, maybe bamboo, maybe PVC pipe, then use some decent house wrap instead of paper, and Titebond waterproof glue. Paint with exterior house paint for esthetics. A small electric trolling motor and maybe a small battery pack used for jumping cars, just enough for limited mobility. Would I cross the Atlantic in such a boat? Nope, but for noodling around a small lake it might be just the thing. Dang! Now you have me thinking about boats again!
@Erl Happ:
I significantly cut back my Trading activity when it surfaced that about 3/4 of ALL Trades were being conducted by computers, not people. Now the percentage is much higher. There are computer systems that watch the new feeds and as soon as a headline is being on the wires, execute giant trades. There is NO WAY you can see any news, and then trade on it. The trade happened milliseconds after it hit the news wires and the trade window was closed long before it even hit the on line media.
We are now in a state where different Mega-Firms have their computerized trade floors competing with each other and feeding off the results of both sets of trades. NO HUMAN involved.
So it will never be the case that the NASDAQ (or any other index) reflects “reality”. They will only reflect the Narrative Du Jour and the reflections of the computer trades on each others tickers.
Due to that, I’ve shifted to a longer term “trend trading” activity. Since the computers are driving things day to day (and likely week to week), I’m looking for month+ long trends. The space where all the machine volatility has dampened out.
My assessment (read: “guess”) is that we’ve had a top, we’ve had the first leg of a decline, and now we are “re-testing” the top. This ought to fail, and then there will be a huge plunge as the shorts come in hard.
In a topping event, shorts tepidly drive things down. At some point, a bunch of bottom fishing types come in to buy shares “cheap” and this starts a bit of a short squeeze. The shorts cover and it looks like the “correction” is over. This is true most of the time. BUT, in big Secular Tops, it isn’t true. The same “recovery” starts in, but falters. That is the moment to short and short hard. I’m still waiting for it.
The key bit missing? At the most recent “bottom”, volume did not spike high. There was not a lot of conviction in the panic to get out, nor in the desire to buy. A Real Bottom ™ has both and volume goes way high. Have not seen that yet, so continuing to hold cash (for either buying or shorting; but not doing either yet as the bottom was not strong and the recent top was clearly a fail to advance – meaning we are in doldrums right now and any little breeze of money sets things in all sorts of directions…)
So that’s my take on things.
@TTN:
Tyvek and PVC would be interesting, but I like his Kevlar cloth… and I’m wondering about making your own square tubing via Kevlar cloth & Resin… OTOH, I could easily see using balsa or similar square stock and just putting Kevlar / resin in a layer over it to make the basic frame, then cloth and dope the hull… (see that gaboats site for examples…)
Basically using cloth airplane methods with Kevlar for boats…
Then there’s the Coroplast approach:
https://christinedemerchant.com/boat-styles-coroplast.html
I kind of like this one sheet folding pram:
https://www.portableboatplans.com/cpb-1.php
I think it would be worth having a sheet in the garage and the plans as a DIY Just In Case option ;-)
Oh, and I think I posted these guy’s last time boats came around:
https://christinedemerchant.com/boat-styles-take-apart.html
https://christinedemerchant.com/boat-styles-folding.html
https://christinedemerchant.com/boat-plans-dory.html
This one is amusing as he shows sail and outrigger options:
https://www.duckworksmagazine.com/16/projects/coroplast/
I think I’m getting Boat Fever again…
In the UK, looks like household fuel bills early next year will be around 4 times what they were a year ago, so there’s much wailing and gnashing of teeth about what the government should be doing about it as regards capping bills, giving people money so they can pay their bills, or taxing the energy companies. No mentions about expanding the locally-produced energy such as fracking for gas or mining coal, both under their feet and there for the taking and where the only thing stopping that is government regulations. Looks like a large proportion of the UK people will have problems with necessities for life costing more than they can earn.
Here in France, apart from the fact that the majority of the electricity produced is nuclear and so the actual cost remains the same, and that the government owns EDF and so mandates the home electricity bills (but of course if it costs more to produce it than the selling price, the taxpayer still picks up the bill), the cost of Diesel will still be reflected in anything delivered by lorry (almost everything) and for food that requires energy to produce it. Not as bad as the UK, but still noticeable in the weekly food bill.
In Germany one of the family is finding that it’s costing him more per week than he’s earning, so is surviving with some jobs on the side and cash in hand payment.
I expect that much the same happens throughout Europe. The cost of energy has been pushed up for political reasons and any elasticity in demand was absorbed a while back, so demand now is what people have to have rather than unnecessary waste. Savings, if any are left, will get spent on necessities.
Thus bound to be bankruptcies of service vendors who aren’t essential, and a general drop in spending on entertainment, eating out, travel, holidays, etc., as the depression bites deeper.
Hopefully, Germany won’t stick to their plan to shutter their remaining nuclear power stations come December, and France will also stop shutting nuclear power stations. The UK could do pretty well if they decide to allow fracking and mining. However, apart from the obvious decisions to not commit suicide it looks like the other energy sources won’t be available in time for this winter, and maybe not for the next either, even if they were given the go-ahead now.
I’ve got a fair woodpile for this winter….
The last time we got into light, portable boats, some 1 or 2-man pontoon boats were fond and linked to.
I thought I could make my own take-apart model and designed some aluminum pontoons. I posted the rough drawings for suggestions to improve them either easier to fabricate or better design for performance in the water.
There are a couple of manufacturers of mini-pontoon boats and, I found that I could not buy the materials for less than the prices of the commercially available boats. I wasn’t getting volume pricing on materials like they get.
Hmmm… I just looked in my ‘Boats’ folder and there are only two links and neither of them are to pond or pontoon boats. Ah well…
I might still look to get a pond boat for Florida since there are lakes and ponds all over the State. The RV park where we stay has an overflow area for towed toy trailers, the two-wheel car tow trailers, and a few boats that people bring. They charge $30/month last I heard and that is very cheap.
But always remember, the only thing better than owning your own boat is to have a friend that owns a boat, 😁