Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume.

In one previous discussion at LinkedIn I said that I was concern about the expansion of mid-latitudinal developments to the South.

I have explained in this blog my assessments over the North hemisphere as part of a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. And the changes in seasonality associated.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude through Europe generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

Temperature 18 July 2016. Several areas with warnings issued due to high temperatures.

Now, through the Southern winter, we can see also anomalies in tempt entering Antarctica from the closest parts to the continents, America and Africa.

I can only repeat what I have said in previous assessments in atmospheric developments. The mixing ratio is increasing and it is not going to follow the same pattern through time. But now it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publication in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing repeated what has happened in previous years.

• What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 3 Sept 2015.

As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical systems at the same time in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:

Well, guess what:

Last year Atacama desert suffered bad flooding in 2015. I discussed it as part of a scenario driven by the influence of atmospheric dynamics due to synergies beyond the ENSO:

• SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 16 October 2015

Nine days ago, Larry Cosgrove  a colleague from my network at LinkedIn, pointed out:

“Very odd weather for a winter’s day in Iquique, Chile. While there has been no rain at Diego Aracena International Airport, some parts of the city and areas to the north and east have seen high winds and fairly strong thunderstorms! On the edge of the Atacama Desert, this is usually one of the calmest and driest cities in the world.”

I believe that the weather over Chile, cold spell over West South Europe with strong winds, thunderstorms, lightening and hail together with the Typhoon in Taiwan are linked in a pattern:

• A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted 08 September 2015

And this pattern dominates the atmospheric circulation dictating the behaviour over the ENSO.:

• Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) posted 5 June 2015
• Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on 21 October 2015
• Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on 11 December 2015
• Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on 22 March 2016

One example on this comes with the interpretation of these two following images from SST anomalies, in two different years, with opposite ENSO index. Which one do you think is the result of El Niño and which one La Niña? Beyond that, which of both represents colder conditions in the north hemisphere?

One question remains.

There is one question in the mind of many: how much of the atmospheric dynamics that we study are related to human activities?

Since I write in my blog on climate I want to say that I started my own line of research just because I didn´t want to follow the random paths dictated by others and their data so I would not leave them make a fool of myself and my beliefs in this subject. So if reading what I write you find non sense in my assessments and conclusions, at least, those would be my own.

The situation as stands nowadays it is pretty similar to the cold war. Was it real or just a mere strategy to manipulate through fear and ignorance. As much as I look at it, it is impossible to have the technology and knowledge to study worlds in space but not having a position over what is going on in the closest one. Can the development of a single specie affect the global climate, ask paleoclimatologists. Can we be one of those species? Do we have the capacity of transformation required? Yes, sooner or later. And we better figure it out sooner than later.

There is a reality behind the political agenda driving today’s scientific debate which is taking its toll on our common social health state. Many members of our society do not feel secure on that they can share openly their thoughts in this matter. We can start with climatologists, general scientists and also meteorologists.

Actually, I am not even sure of that if by saying my opinion I might be damaging my chances to find a job being myself an Environmental Biologist. Not only meteorologists are under “the weather” produced by this non sense. Even a simple researcher seeking a job position, like me, has to be very cautious with what or how says what he thinks in this subject. Why it does not happen when talking about food and cancer?

If you want to have a simple point of view on the matter of human impact over atmospheric dynamics lets look at some simple chemistry.

In some of my earliest posts I used the process of cooking as an analogy to address the problems behind modelling climatic shifts and synergistic interactions. And when I say cooking, I mean something more… demanding than a pizza.

The order of the factors/ingredients affect the product

• Cooking an environment (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 7th November 2013

The behaviour of water is none lineal

• “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 15 May 2014

It is water vapour, a greenhouse gas, what cooks the aliments.

• Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 06 August 2015

Dry food requires water to be cooked.

• Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted 25 February 2016

But if you ask me what is the most relevant analogy of all considering the impact from human activities over atmospheric and climatic developments, I would take, the impact of just adding salt into water.

Thanks to this small contribution, water can retain more heat in liquid form (the new boiling point is increased) and also its  electric conductivity increases. Similar, with the introduction into the atmosphere of GHGs and aerosols, the amount of heat that it can retain increases as well as its thermal conductivity. But furthermore, by releasing land cover from vegetation, it also increases thermal conductivity from the ground since it gets hotter from sun’s radiation than when it is covered with vegetation.

The combination of these simple factors, allow the atmosphere to become more thermodynamically conductive. Which in turn allows more different forms of energy to be absorbed and displaced. This is something which I consider to be happening based on the previous research and assessments which are part of this blog.

Peer reviewed articles supporting previous publications in the line of research published in this blog:

Since 2014 most of the assessments published in this blog can not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach (see email exchange with Jennifer Francis in full here). However, some peer reviewed publications start to appear supporting these assessments:

Hadley Circulation:

• Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted 6 May 2016

Energy gradients:

• The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted 10 June 2016

Statistical errors:

• What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 3 September 2015. (“Regional climate change and national responsibilities”. James Hansen and Makiko Sato. Published 2 March 2016. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 3. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009)