June 28, 2013  

Box Office Predictions (28-30th June)

We got some interesting films coming out this weekend and a lot of heavy hitters returning from last weekend. The two new releases, first is The Heat a comedy film from the director of Bridesmaids and big comedy draws Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy, and the second release is White House Down directed by Emmerich and staring Fox, Tatum and Woods but it isn’t looking healthy. The returning film World War Z and Monsters University should take decent positions this weekend with MU narrowly keeping its top spot. Can I redeem myself from my awful predictions last weekend? Well there’s only one way to find out, read this prediction post and they the results on Monday and go watch some movies, now to the breakdowns. Also Rorschach Reviews will be doing a similar feature so I have some more competitions.

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Returning Films

Last weekend we had some surprises, some jaw dropping but this weekend we’ll see how well they hold up because yet again we have two wide releases. Monsters University did well last weekend and will probably hold up well but it does have a chance of losing its first spot this weekend and there is extra pressure from Despicable me 2 next weekend, so I am predicting $42M. World War Z shocked last weekend but I am just not sure how much staying power it has, still it did well and people liked it so it shouldn’t fall too much, however the films this weekend are in direct competition in terms of demographics so predicting respectable numbers of $30M. Man of steel shouldn’t drop as much this weekend, so I am predicting around $22M.

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New Films

The Heat

The-Heat-poster

Plot:

Uptight FBI Special Agent Sarah Ashburn (Sandra Bullock) and foul-mouthed Boston cop Shannon Mullins (Melissa McCarthy) couldn’t be more incompatible. But when they join forces to bring down a ruthless drug lord, they become the last thing anyone expected: buddies. From Paul Feig, director of “Bridesmaids.”

Analysis:

This film could be a surprise winner as it has lots going for it but it’s hard to say until actual figures come in. similar films open around the $35M mark but this film has two strong leads and people really like them in comedies. Other benefits include the film being women oriented which is a demographic that hasn’t been represented in the box office for months, and now that I think of it there aren’t many films after this either. My prediction is $38M. It could make more though.

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White House Down

White-House-Down-poster

Plot:

The White House is under siege in this action thriller from Independence Day director Roland Emmerich and The Amazing Spider-Man’s writer James Vanderbilt in this Sony Pictures release. Channing Tatum stars.

Analysis:

Surprisingly this film isn’t polling well, there is very little confidence from audiences, the reviews are bad, and it’s tracking quite low at $30M according to studios. I don’t know how this happened; it’s got massively popular star power and a director whose films rarely miss the highest grossing films of all time. My theory is that because Olympus has Fallen beat it to the punch people don’t want to see the film twice, but that doesn’t really answer why this film is looking weak. I blame the trailers, they changed from serious political thriller in the first trailer to action comedy in the latest ones, this normally causes problems for the box office because people will be confused as to what they are going into and will pick something else to watch. My prediction is $40M.

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My Prediction

  1. Monsters University:   -$42M
  2. White House Down:   -$40M
  3. The Heat:   -$38M
  4. World War Z:   -$30M
  5. Man of Steel:   -$22M
  6. This is the End:   -$8M
  7. Now You See Me:  -$4M
  8. Fast & Furious 6                :  -$3M
  9. The Purge:  -$2M
  10. Star Trek Into Darkness:  -$2M

Well that’s my views. Now what do you think about this weekend and its new releases?

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About Tim The Film Guy

Very opinionated about films!

28 responses to “Box Office Predictions (28-30th June)”

  1. Rebecca Perfect says :

    Reblogged this on Fanatical about Film in a Perfect Way… and commented:
    Great piece! And some interesting predictions! Take a look film fans!

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  2. Daniel Prinn says :

    The Heat wasn’t bad at all, just familiar, but really funny. I think I have to wait for WHD, though… Nice predictions, we’re not so far off from each other. Stupid White House Down not earning a lot of money 😦

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  3. table9mutant says :

    In that poster, Sandra Bullock looks like Helena Bonham Carter. When she’s an ape…

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  4. boxofficebuzzab says :

    Good guesses!

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  5. Franz Patrick says :

    I’m more interested in seeing “The Heat” than “White House Down,” to be honest. Can’t get enough of Melissa McCarthy!

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  6. sanclementejedi says :

    Not interested in any of those new releases

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  7. lukebbtt says :

    Isn’t ‘The Bling Ring’ and ‘Now You See Me’ out this week?

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  8. theipc says :

    I don’t think much about this week’s new releases… : (

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    Reply

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