TV1 Poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags:

A TV1 poll came out yesterday, showing no change in the major parties (Labour National and Greens all up 1%, all margin of error stuff). The good news is that Key is down 4% as preferred PM, and Shearer has debuted well at 11%.

Many would have expected a drop in National’s polling giving the awful couple of week’s they’ve had, but shifts in polling opinion always lag behind events. Bear in mind also that TV1 polls have a poor record in practice, and the Nats were down 3% in the most recent TV3 poll. (You can catch Frank Macskasy’s take on the TV1 poll here.) In other polling related news, iPredict has Labour at 52% probability of leading the next government.

They say that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. National is working pretty hard at that just lately, and their fall will be reflected in polling over the course of the year. Even so, Labour can’t afford to sit about and wait for the next election to drop into their lap. Get the organisational review done, get the policy review done, and then let’s see Labour on the campaign trail as soon as possible…

40 comments on “TV1 Poll ”

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  1. bad12 1
    2 April 2012 at 10:18 am

    The way we see 2011 is that it was a 2% victory for the Tory,s, what makes this National Government look secure is the Maori party support it has managed to cling on to,

    Both Turia and Sharples have indicated that neither will contest another election and we doubt there is another burning issue within Maoridom which will not see both those seats return to Labour and after the ”interesting” little spat between Sharples and Flavell just after 2011 we are not sure that Flavell will be returning to the Parliament after 2014,

    Labour if it continues to cling to the failed ”Rogernomics” of its past are going to bleed more support to the Greens and if it is to form the Government after 2014 it will either have to look left for its economic vision or be forced to do so simply by dint of the % of vote going Green,

    We await with anticipation and some trepidation the ”vision” of Labours ”new” Parliamentary Leader who has so far failed to inspire either us or the mandarins at TV1,tho we will add that as leadership goes Labour Deputy Grant Robertson has shown a positive image via the TV news with His able backing of His MP,s over the Nick Smith fiasco…

  2. Dr Terry 2
    2 April 2012 at 10:36 am

    I am politically naive. Will somebody explain to me what “centre-right” actually means or implies? When I see this applied to the Labour Party, I can only feel trepidation. Does it imply “sitting on the fence”, or “having it both ways”, or “well, at least we are not FAR to the Right – we are not like Hitler’s Nazis, are we?” Not yet, I hope!! Moving to the Right seems to be leaving all the options open. What ever happened to the Left? Leaving it to the Greens? Shearer is not showing well.

    • Pete George 2.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:34 am

      Most policies of most parties are closer to the centre than to the extreme left or right.

      Centre just means moderate with room to move a bit left or right on specific issues as common sense dictates.

      Even the asset sales programme is fairly centre-ish, with a bob each way on privitisation and public ownership.

    • McFlock 2.2
      2 April 2012 at 1:45 pm

      I’m not familiar with any party that calls itself “extreme left” or “extreme right” – it’s all a bit relativistic. Most people tend to identify themselves as reasonable and middle-of-the-road. But then that has changed dramatically over the last 30 years.

      “Centre right” is what parties call themselves when they want the unemployed to starve in the streets, “centre left” is what parties call themselves when they want to eat the rich. 
           

      But then we have what one party might call another party. If a member of the People’s Socialist Party of Aotearoa calls someone “right wing”, then maybe in the great scheme of things the person is actually pretty moderate. If a member of pre-brash ACT calls someone “right wing”, they’re probably pretty diabolical.
           
      Where it gets REALLY complicated is that “right wing” can refer to extreme economic liberalism (asset sales, no minimum wage, minimal flat tax, private prisons, no social welfare) and/or extreme social conservatism (drugs, abortion, homosexuality, hoodies are all illegal).
            
      Basically, unless their social conservatism becomes over-bearing, I try to regard “centre” on purely economic policy,  picking as an arbitrary “middle” somewhere around 1985, i.e. a perceptual midpoint between the highly interventionist Muldoon and the sociopathically non-interventionist Douglas/Richardson. But then I’m reasonably left wing, so take my perspective accordingly. 😉

  3. Enough is Enough 3
    2 April 2012 at 10:48 am

    I would have expected bigger better things for Labour in this poll with the shambles that has been Key and his thriving mob so far this year.

    People say shifts in polls are a gradual thing but I am not sure that is always correct. Natioanl was lagging in the 20’s and low 30’s for most of English’s reign. Then in the course of one speech to a group of rich white men at the Orewa Rotary club in 2004, Don Brash catapulted National into a position where they never really looked back. That jolt in the polls was instant and they have been above 40 ever since. It didn’t win them the 2005 election but has given them a core of support that they have held for 8 years now.

    The media will always report the polls with a FPP mindset. We have to accept that and therfore need to get Labour back into the 40’s.

    Someone at some stage must stand up and make a speech that appeals to the masses and to win our core support back.

    The issues are there, SOE sales, land sales, and industrial relations. Time to make a stand before the media begins writing off Shearer as they did Goff.

  4. ghostwhowalksnz 4
    2 April 2012 at 10:56 am

    Lets hope the Nationals are enjoying the polls 51% a lot more than the voters 47.3%.

    • Frank Macskasy 4.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:01 am

      If I were a National backroom strategist, Ghost, I’d be sh*tt*ng my pants about now. Whilst TVNZ may report that National has “risen” in the polls -that;s for public consumption only. The reality is the opposite – they are dropping, even by Colmar’s own figures.

      As I’ve written on my blog, barring full employment and abandonment of their asset sales programme, National is on it’s way out. Labour is a government in waiting.

      The next polls should be interesting…

      • Gosman 4.1.1
        2 April 2012 at 11:34 am

        Oh if only the Labour party was filled with ‘Useful idiots’ like you Frank in policy formation positions. The National party stategists would have a ball with your ideas. Painting Shearer as the Mugabe of the South Pacific would be so so cool. They could even throw in some pics of him in his time with the UN in places in Africa and suggest he obviously went a bit loony in the hot African sun.

        • Frank Macskasy 4.1.1.1
          2 April 2012 at 11:39 am

          Oh dear, Gosman, I seem to have got to you? 😀

          Never mind. Ad hominem insults simply prove my previous points about your ‘style’ of debate.

          Now, let’s see you address the POINTS I raised. Can you do that?

          • Wonker 4.1.1.1.1
            2 April 2012 at 12:05 pm

            Frank – you’re such a munt “– they are dropping, even by Colmar’s own figures.”

            The last Colmar Brunton poll had National at 50.3%. The latest at 51%. Hence you are factually wrong.

            54%
            53%
            50%
            51%

            Moreover your analysis of poll results v. election day results is also bogus:

            http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/one-news-colmar-brunton/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll-media-releases

            Do some friggin’ research.

            [lprent: I’m sure someone will point this out, but you haven’t looked at the error rates. Relying on a movement that is well within the probable statistical error between two data points is stupidity. If you don’t understand why, then it suggests that you aren’t capable of arguing here. If you do understand it, then it suggests to me that you are merely trolling rather than arguing.

            Either way means that you have attracted my moderating attention which is somewhat dangerous. I suggest you read the policy as your research.

            Otherwise you may get a humour quirk as I globally change a vowel in your pseudonym. ]

            • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1.1.1.1
              2 April 2012 at 12:17 pm

              51 is less than 54. Frank is right, you are wrong.

              • Wonker …
                2 April 2012 at 12:25 pm

                It’s also higher than 48% which National has polled. Shall we pick a time when they polled 55%? How about 21%?

                51% is higher than the last, most recent, point estimate. Deal with it.

            • Gosman 4.1.1.1.1.2
              2 April 2012 at 1:13 pm

              “Relying on a movement that is well within the probable statistical error between two data points is stupidity”

              Genuine question here for you lprent.

              Isn’t Frank doing virtually the same thing your are accusing Wonker of doing?

              [lprent: If you are thinking about the numbers I think you are, then the measurement would be from about 54% or 55% down to about 50% across the period he is talking about (the poll taken prior to the last election). I don’t know about those particular polls, but the confidence limits on most of the TVNZ and TV3 polls are usually +/- 3 or 3.5% unless they have dropped their sample sizes recently. You should read it as being significant.

              In practice there are much larger sampling errors due to their collection techniques – which are essentially shit. You can see this clearly in that the various polls that are meant to be sampling the same population are consistently different by a margin that is well outside the purported confidence limits.

              And Frank must be well aware of that because in what I have read of his posts and comments, he has consistently been pointing to the trends within a poll rather than the actual poll numbers and applying them to the actual election results. In other words, correctly looking at the poll numbers and using them for the only thing they are good for – trends.

              I haven’t seen him misuse the stats yet apart from his rounding errors. ]

            • bad12 4.1.1.1.1.3
              2 April 2012 at 1:40 pm

              Changing that vowel would seem suitable moderation indeed…

            • Wonker 4.1.1.1.1.4
              2 April 2012 at 1:42 pm

              Fair enough – how about we look at a longer time period:

              Feb (2011) 51
              Apr 54
              May 52
              Jul 53
              Aug 56
              Sep 56
              Oct 56
              Nov (5 -9) 54
              Nov (12-16)53
              Nov (19 – 23)50
              Mar (2012) 51

              One can say that National has consistently polled above 50% between 50% and 56%. So while one could get excited about a downward trend since Oct (which generally always happens in the run-up to an election) a longer-term 12-month view suggests that this isn’t material. National starts 2012 with the same estimate of popularity as it started 2011. If you care enough to do some calculations on this go for gold.

              • Te Reo Putake …
                2 April 2012 at 2:10 pm

                Three points.
                 
                One, Colmar Brunton had the Nats at 50 going into the election. Actual result? 47%. CB consistently over-rate the right.
                 
                Secondly, under MMP, even with that 47%, National needed 5 extra votes to have a workable Government. Those 5 seats will be reduced to one at the next election, maybe two if Dunne is forgiven for the asset sales lies.
                 
                Thirdly, the alternative Government (Labour, Greens, NZF) is polling between 43 and 46% since the election (and higher in the more accurate Roy Morgan poll). They only have to improve slightly to win power. A mere ten thousand votes, I’m told.
                 
                 

                • Wonker …
                  2 April 2012 at 2:23 pm

                  I think you’ll find the election day result as within the margin of error. You’ll also find that CB at National at the second lowest estimation and only 0.8% points higher than Roy Morgan. Not including the spurious Horizon poll.

                  “Those 5 seats will be reduced to one at the next election, maybe two if Dunne is forgiven for the asset sales lies.”

                  Care to lend me your time travel device. Thanks.

                  Full disclosure: I don’t particularly care who wins in 2014 – so vent all you want.

                  • Te Reo Putake …
                    2 April 2012 at 2:41 pm

                    Jeez, you give up easy, Wonker! Better luck next time, eh.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:00 pm

                      Man, I see in the Standard the strongest and smartest men [sic] who’ve ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping out posts, writing comments; slaves with keyboards. PR has them chasing polls and rumors, trawling through muck they hate so they can make up shit they don’t need. They’re the middle children of history, man. No real purpose or place. They have no Great War. No Great Depression. Their Great War’s a spiritual war… their Great Depression is their lives. All been raised on clusterf*ck television to believe that one day they’ll make a difference. But they won’t. And they’re slowly learning that fact. And they’re very, very pissed off.

                    • Jackal …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:52 pm

                      Hey Wonker, would you happen to know why Culmar Brunton hasn’t published the report? I mean if you can take some time out from your ranting that is.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 6:11 pm

                      I’m guessing it’s all part of the global capitalist conspiracy. It was probably a strategic action agreed at Davos. Shhh don’t tell anyone.

                  • McFlock …
                    2 April 2012 at 2:49 pm

                    I think you’ll find the election day result as within the margin of error. 

                     
                    Oh look dear, the parrot has learned a new word.
                          
                    You might want to read the pre-election poll.  On the face of it you would be almost correct, given the CB max error of 3.1% and a CB:ER ratio of  50%:47.31%. But look at the results – they obviously round the larger parties’ support. So National’s actual support might be anywhere in the region of 49.5%–50.49%, meaning with the max error something in the region of 46.8%–53.6%. Yes, the difference between 47.3 and 49.5 is error-level stuff. but 53:47 is an interesting disparity. And if you look at the poll mix over extended periods, CB is consistently to the right of the spread.
                         
                    Fascinating stuff, but then I’m a geek at heart. 

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:06 pm

                      You’re giving me goosebumps.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:14 pm

                      lol

                    • BW Lord …
                      2 April 2012 at 4:08 pm

                      @ Wonker

                      Love your post above. Would vote it for post of the day.
                      Wonder how many here can pick out the reference.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 4:54 pm

                      Somehow I don’t think wonker picks the marxist overtones in it.
                           
                      In fact, I think that that wonker probably just chose some macho bullshit that looked cool in a film (I doubt he reads much) and had lines at the beginning and end that he could mean sarcastically.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:22 pm

                      Oh noes my ‘marxist’ credentials are being audited.

                      Personally I like to think of the passage in Gramscian terms (admittedly his thought is classed as ‘Marxist’).

                      Strum my pain McFlock… strum my pain.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:26 pm

                      yeah whatever, dude

                    • Te Reo Putake …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:48 pm

                      “wonder how many can pick up the reference”
                       
                      Meh, it’s just a Hollywood scriptwriter being lazy and dumbing down the classics for the masses. Here’s the source.

      • Robert Glennie 4.1.2
        2 April 2012 at 9:10 pm

        They are dropping Frank, because National has been way too hasty trying to get big radical reforms underway and is not doing due diligence on the legislation it is trying to pass before it goes to Parliament. An example is the – I believe very dangerous – Social Security Bill currently taking submissions (you have until 13 April). It affects the way people as diverse as pensioners and school age children; young mothers and people on the dole get their benefits. Some aspects are frankly Orwellian in nature – like the clock will be rather close to striking 13 if passed into law.

  5. captain hook 5
    2 April 2012 at 11:22 am

    I’m not sure about the daily MSN poll as I think Hooton and co manipulate it but today it says that a significant percentage believes that national has done a poor job this term.

    • Frank Macskasy 5.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:41 am

      I heard Hooton on Radio NZ today. I cannot believe that he couldn’t see the significance of those poll results.

      I’ve emailed RNZ a link to my blogpost.

  6. Sanctuary 6
    2 April 2012 at 11:33 am

    Even when I checked the result on Curia, the undecided vote was not listed. So to my mind, National could be sloughing support to the undecideds, whilst only reporting on the decided vote makes it look like National is doing better than it actually is.

  7. captain hook 7
    2 April 2012 at 12:03 pm

    and then along comes gosman and plays the man and not the ball.
    a typical tory trick for lack of anything substantial to say and bury their venality under a welter of meaningless verbiage.

  8. Bill 8
    2 April 2012 at 12:20 pm

    I don’t usually give much of a flying fuck for polls and stuff. But I just watched the TVNZ vid clip on the poll.

    Focussing more on the supporting visuals which help shape and audiences perception rather than the commentary is kind of interesting.

    John Key is shown mucking around with laughing kids accompanied with a ‘crawling ahead’ commentary and later with kids enjoying themselves and balloons being released.

    Shearer is shown getting a haircut and asking where the magazines and coffee are (hardly ‘inspiring’) and shearing a sheep (Labour will fleece you?)

    Add on top that National are referred to as a ‘centre right’ (ie moderate) party rather than by the more accurate epithet of ‘extreme right’ or just plain ‘right wing’ party and the message this particular media outlet wishes to portray becomes pretty damned obvious. (Just a thought, but if National are ‘centre right’, then doesn’t that make Labour completely redundant in the eyes of most people?)

    Forget about ACC and all the other nonsense and drama coming from National. When the media couches information with pleasing or positive visuals (or at least neutral rather than negative images) and when they also use misleading labels to describe or ‘place’ those they are commenting on, then it is that, rather than any substantial issues laid over the top of that framework, which will influence and ‘inform’ people.

  9. james 111 9
    2 April 2012 at 2:28 pm

    Whatever way you look at it a great result for the Nats with all the crap going on. John Key still comes out smelling of roses. Much to the disdain of the Labour voters.
    Shows the opposition isn’t really being effective in the house ,and are scoring very little if any blows being challenged in the house by David Shearer is somewhat similar to a person hitting you with a wet paper towel. The Nick Smith affair did nothing for Labour as most punters saw that as being very Petty ,and they all remember how Long Helen Clark kept Phillip Taito Fields in train just to remain in government when the man was found to be a exploiter ,and a criminal. Yes I think National will quietly smiling over that Poll.

    • Te Reo Putake 9.1
      2 April 2012 at 2:53 pm

      So you haven’t read the post or any of the comments, James? Just riffing on the headline, hoping for the best?

  10. james 111 10
    2 April 2012 at 9:08 pm

    Great comment this from another blog so I thought I would share it with you for your further edification. Explains the Poll result in a nut shell really.

    (1) No one cares about the ACC thing.
    (2) Lots of people care about the port strikes.
    (3) But mostly not in the way that Labour want them to care.

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    1 day ago

  • Budget challenges
    Muriel Newman writes –  As the new Government puts the finishing touches to this month’s Budget, they will undoubtedly have had their hands full dealing with the economic mess that Labour created. Not only was Labour a grossly incompetent manager of the economy, but they also set out ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Rishi calls an Election.
    Today the British PM, Rishi Sunak, called a general election for the 4th of July. He spoke of the challenging times and of strong leadership and achievements. It was as if he was talking about someone else, a real leader, rather than he himself or the woeful list of Tory ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago

  • Photo of the Day: GNR
    This post marks the return of an old format: Photo of the Day. Recently I was in an apartment in one of those new buildings on Great North Road Grey Lynn at rush hour, perfect day, the view was stunning, so naturally I whipped out my phone: GNR 5pm Turns ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    2 days ago

  • Choosing landlords and the homeless over first home buyers
    The Government may struggle with the political optics of scrapping assistance for first home buyers while also cutting the tax burden on landlords, increasing concerns over the growing generational divide. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government confirmed it will dump first home buyer grants in the Budget next ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Orr’s warning; three years of austerity
    Yesterday, the Reserve Bank confirmed there will be no free card for the economy to get out of jail during the current term of the Government. Regardless of what the Budget next week says, we are in for three years of austerity. Over those three years, we will have to ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • An admirable U-turn
    It doesn’t inspire confidence when politicians change their minds.  But you must give credit when a bad idea is dropped. Last year, we reported on the determination of British PM Rishi Sunak to lead the world in regulating the dangers of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps he changed his mind after meeting ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    2 days ago

  • Climate Adam: Can we really suck up Carbon Dioxide?
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Is carbon dioxide removal - aka "negative emissions" - going to save us from climate change? Or is it just a ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Public funding for private operators in mental health and housing – and a Bill to erase a bit of t...
    Headed for the legislative wastepaper basket…    Buzz from the Beehive It looks like this government is just as ready as its predecessor to dip into the public funds it is managing to dispense millions of dollars to finance – and favour – the parties it fancies. Or ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Why has Einstein Medalist Roy Kerr never been Knighted?
    Rob MacCulloch writes – National and Labour and ACT have at various times waxed on about their “vision” of NZ as a high value-added world tech center What subject is tech based upon? Mathematics. A Chicago mathematician just told me that whereas last decade ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Contestable advice
    Eric Crampton writes –  Danyl McLauchlan over at The Listener on the recent shift toward more contestability in public policy advice in education: Education Minister Erica Stanford, one of National’s highest-ranked MPs, is trying to circumvent the establishment, taking advice from a smaller pool of experts – ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • How did it get so bad?
    Ele Ludemann writes – That Kāinga Ora is a mess is no surprise, but the size of the mess is. There have been many reports of unruly tenants given licence to terrorise neighbours, properties bought and left vacant, and the state agency paying above market rates in competition ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the privatising of state housing provision, by stealth
    The scathing “independent” review of Kāinga Ora barely hit the table before the coalition government had acted on it. The entire Kāinga Ora board will be replaced, and a new chair (Simon Moutter) has been announced. Hmm. No aspersions on Bill English, but the public would have had more confidence ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    2 days ago

  • Our House.
    I'll light the fireYou place the flowers in the vaseThat you bought todayA warm dry home, you’d think that would be bread and butter to politicians. Home ownership and making sure people aren’t left living on the street, that’s as Kiwi as Feijoa and Apple Crumble. Isn’t it?The coalition are ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Getting to No
    Politics is about compromise, right?  And framing it so the voters see your compromise as the better one.  John Key was a skilful exponent of this approach (as was Keith Holyoake in an earlier age), and Chris Luxon isn’t too bad either. But in politics, the process whereby an old ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result of his non-disclosure could even see ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Get your story straight, buddy
    The relentless drone coming out of the Prime Minister and his deputy for a million days now has been that the last government was just hosing  money all over the show and now at last the grownups are in charge and shutting that drunken sailor stuff down. There is a word ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • A govt plane is headed for New Caledonia – here’s hoping the Kiwis stranded there get better ser...
    Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to riot-torn New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home. Today’s flight will carry around 50 passengers with the most ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Who is David MacLeod?
    Precious declaration saysYours is yours and mine you leave alone nowPrecious declaration saysI believe all hope is dead no longerTick tick tick Boom!Unexploded ordnance. A veritable minefield. A National caucus with a large number of unknowns, candidates who perhaps received little in the way of vetting as the party jumped ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • The Four Knights
    Rex Ahdar writes –  The Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, likes to trace his political lineage back to the pioneers of parliamentary Maoridom.   I will refer to these as the ‘big four’ or better still, the Four Knights. Just as ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Could Willie Jackson be the populist leader that Labour need?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Willie Jackson will participate in the prestigious Oxford Union debate on Thursday, following in David Lange’s footsteps. Coincidentally, Jackson has also followed Lange’s footsteps by living in his old home in South Auckland. And like Lange, Jackson might be the sort of loud-mouth scrapper ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Unacceptable
    That is the only way to describe an MP "forgetting" to declare $178,000 in donations. The amount of money involved - more than five times the candidate spending cap, and two and a half times the median income - is boggling. How do you just "forget" that amount of money? ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Justice for Gaza!
    It finally happened: the International Criminal Court prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes in Gaza: The chief prosecutor of the international criminal court has said he is seeking arrest warrants for senior Hamas and Israeli officials for war crimes and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Media Link: AVFA on the implications of US elections.
    In this week’s “A View from Afar” podcast Selwyn Manning and spoke about the upcoming US elections and what the possibility of another Trump presidency means for the US role in world affairs. We also spoke about the problems Joe … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    3 days ago

  • Web of Chaos, Secret Dolphins & Monster Truck Madness
    Hi,Two years ago I briefly featured in Justin Pemberton’s Web of Chaos documentary, which touched on things like QAnon during the pandemic.I mostly prattled on about how intertwined conspiracy narratives are with Evangelical Christian thinking, something Webworm’s explored in the past.(The doc is available on TVNZ+, if you’re not in ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • How Government’s road obsession is ruining Auckland’s transport plans
    “TL;DR: The reality is that Central Government’s transport policy and direction makes zero sense for Auckland, and if the draft GPS doesn’t change from its original form, then Auckland will be on a collision course with Wellington.” Auckland’s draft Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) 2024 is now out for consultation, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    3 days ago

  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Tuesday, May 21
    The Government is leaving the entire construction sector and the community housing sector in limbo. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government released the long-awaited Bill English-led review of Kāinga Ora yesterday, but delayed key decisions on its build plan and how to help community housing providers (CHPs) build ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Climate change is affecting mental health literally everywhere
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons Farmers who can’t sleep, worrying they’ll lose everything amid increasing drought. Youth struggling with depression over a future that feels hopeless. Indigenous people grief-stricken over devastated ecosystems. For all these people and more, climate change is taking a clear toll ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • The Ambassador and Luxon – eye to eye
    New Zealand’s relationship with China is becoming harder to define, and with that comes a worry that a deteriorating political relationship could spill over into the economic relationship. It is about more than whether New Zealand will join Pillar Two of Aukus, though the Chinese Ambassador, more or less, suggested ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • Fast track to environmental degradation
    Been hoping we would see something like this from Sir Geoffrey Palmer. This is excellent.The present Bill goes further than the National Development Act 1979  in stripping away procedures designed to ensure that environmental issues are properly considered. The 1979 approach was not acceptable then and this present approach is ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Leading Labour Off The Big Rock Candy Mountain.
    He’s Got The Moxie: Only Willie Jackson possesses the credentials to meld together a new Labour message that is, at one and the same moment, staunchly working-class, union-friendly, and which speaks to the hundreds-of-thousands of urban Māori untethered to the neo-tribal capitalist elites of the Iwi Leaders Forum.IT’S ONE OF THE ...
    Bowalley Road
    4 days ago

  • Priority is given to powerlines – govt strikes another blow for the economy while Jones fends off ...
    Tree-huggers may well accuse the Government of giving them the fingers, after Energy Minister Simeon Brown announced new measures to protect powerlines from trees, rather than measures to protect trees from powerlines. It can be no coincidence, surely, that this has been announced at the same as Fisheries Minister Shane Jones ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • Climate Change: The question we need to be asking
    One of National's first actions in government was to dismantle climate change policy, scrapping the clean car discount and overturning the Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry, which had given us Aotearoa's biggest-ever emissions reduction. But there's an obvious problem: we needed those emissions reductions to meet our carbon budgets: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Could Willie Jackson be the populist leader that Labour need?
    Willie Jackson will participate in the prestigious Oxford Union debate on Thursday, following in David Lange’s footsteps. Coincidentally, Jackson has also followed Lange’s footsteps by living in his old home in South Auckland. And like Lange, Jackson might be the sort of loud-mouth scrapper who could take over the Labour ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago

  • The Tikanga challenge for law schools, the rule of law – and Parliament
    Barrister Gary Judd KC’s complaint to the Regulatory Review Committee has sparked a fierce debate about the place of tikanga Māori – or Māori customs, values and spiritual beliefs – in the law.Judd opposes the New Zealand Council of Legal Education’s plans to make teaching tikanga compulsory in the legal curriculum.AUT ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  •  The Huge Potential Benefits of Charter Schools
    Alwyn Poole writes –  In New Zealand we have approximately 460 high schools. The gaps between the schools that produce the best results for students and those at the other end of the spectrum are enormous.In terms of the data for their leavers, the top 30 schools have ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Can Shane Jones be trusted in making Fast-track decisions?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  New Zealand First Cabinet Minister Shane Jones has become the best advertisement against the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill. In selling the radical new resource consenting processes, in which ministers can green light any mine, dam, or other major development, Jones seems to be ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Thinking About The Property Rights In Resource Decisions As Well As Transaction Costs
    Brian Easton writes –  The Fast-Track Approvals Bill enables cabinet ministers to circumvent key environmental planning and protection processes for infrastructure projects. Its difficulties have been well canvassed. This column suggests a different way of thinking about the proposal. I am ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On Israel’s Political Split, And The New Caledonia Crisis
    The split opening up in Israel’s “War Cabinet” is not just between PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his long-term rival Benny Gantz. It is actually a three-way split, set in motion by Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. It was Gallant’s open criticism of Netanyahu that finally flushed Gantz out into the open. ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • After much debate, the Auckland Future Fund was approved. So what should it be used for?
    On Thursday 17 May, the Mayoral Proposal for Auckland’s Long Term Plan 2024-2034 was passed by Auckland Council, 20 to 1. It is set to be formally adopted by the Governing Body at its June 27th meeting. The entire process took 8 hours, with the vast majority of that time ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago

  • The State of the Planet with Chlöe & Marama.
    Pakanga o muaTukua, ka ngaroPuritia taku ringaNgaro ana te ara ki pae rauThere's a battle aheadMany battles are lostBut you'll never see the end of the roadWhile you're travelling with meLate yesterday morning I headed to Wynyard Quarter to see Marama Davidson and Chlöe Swarbrick give their pre-budget State of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • It’s up to Willis now
    Maybe the Prime Minister and his Finance Minister expected the worst, so they mounted a stout defence of the Budget tax cuts to their party faithful at a party conference over the weekend. In turn, they were greeted with applause, which, though it may have been less than wildly enthusiastic, ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
    A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 12, 2024 thru Sat, May 18, 2024. Story of the week “The legislation I signed today [will] keep windmills off our beaches, gas in our tanks, and ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Bernard’s pick ‘n’ mix 6 @ 6:06am on Sunday, May 19
    TL;DR: Here’s six links that stood out to me in the last day in Aotearoa’s political economy to 6:06am on Sunday, May 19:Aotearoa-NZ is the seventh worst in the OECD’s homelessness rankings, just behind the United States and just ahead of Australia. BlackRock thinks rate hikes actually worsen inflation because ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Lords of the flies
    Halfway up a historic tower in York, we are neither up nor down. At the top you will have views of a city steeped in antiquity, made and remade by Romans, Normans, Vikings, Tescos. Below, you will find a retired minister happy to tell you all about this most astonishing ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Middle East, Africa deployments extended
    The Government has approved two-year extensions for four New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the Middle East and Africa, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “These deployments are long-standing New Zealand commitments, which reflect our ongoing interest in promoting peace and stability, and making active ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Climate Change Commission Chair to retire
    The Climate Change Commission Chair, Dr Rod Carr, has confirmed his plans to retire at the end of his term later this year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Prior to the election, Dr Carr advised me he would be retiring when his term concluded. Dr Rod Carr has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago

  • Inaugural Board of Integrity Sport & Recreation Commission announced
    Nine highly respected experts have been appointed to the inaugural board of the new Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission is a new independent Crown entity which was established under the Integrity Sport and Recreation Act last year, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • A balanced Foreign Affairs budget
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters confirmed today that Vote Foreign Affairs in Budget 2024 will balance two crucial priorities of the Coalition Government.    While Budget 2024 reflects the constrained fiscal environment, the Government also recognises the critical role MFAT plays in keeping New Zealanders safe and prosperous.    “Consistent with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago

  • New social housing places to support families into homes
    New social housing funding in Budget 2024 will ensure the Government can continue supporting more families into warm, dry homes from July 2025, Housing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka say. “Earlier this week I was proud to announce that Budget 2024 allocates $140 million to fund 1,500 new social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago

  • New Zealand’s minerals future
    Introduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today  we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer.  Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment.  However, more than money is needed. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government sets out vision for minerals future
    Increasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government progresses Māori wards legislation
    The coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • First RMA amendment Bill introduced to Parliament
    The coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to  unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government welcomes EPA decision
    The decision by Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to approve the continued use of hydrogen cyanamide, known as Hi-Cane, has been welcomed by Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay.  “The EPA decision introduces appropriate environmental safeguards which will allow kiwifruit and other growers to use Hi-Cane responsibly,” Ms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrow
    Kia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government invests in 1,500 more social homes
    The coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • $24 million boost for Gumboot Friday
    Thousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War Cemetery
    Standing here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989
    I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for children
    The Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour.  “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • China Business Summit 2024
    Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Assisted depatures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.    “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Assisted departures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.  “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Government to rollout roadside drug testing
    The Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Minister responds to review of Kāinga Ora
    The Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New Zealand-China Business Summit
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao.  Good morning everyone.   Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • New measures to protect powerlines from trees
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events.  “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received
    "On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “I raised my concerns after being ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • District Court Judges appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Unions should put learning ahead of ideology
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools.     “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMA
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguard
    Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationship
    New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says.  “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019.  “It is my pleasure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New Caledonia
    New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.  “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.  “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of State
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card funding
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further sanctions against Russia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • One year on from Loafers Lodge
    A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Pre-Budget speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand and Vanuatu to deepen collaboration
    New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says.    “This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Penk travels to Peru for trade meetings
    Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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