If only the NFL Draft were still held at Radio City Music Hall. That’s the only way Thursday night’s first round would feel any bigger for New York, and for the Giants.
They hold the No. 2 overall pick for the first time since 1981, when then-GM George Young selected Lawrence Taylor out of North Carolina. “LT” became the greatest Giant ever and is in the Hall of Fame.
This time, Dave Gettleman will sit in the GM’s chair, and he will watch the Cleveland Browns make their No. 1 overall pick, and then he will have 10 minutes to work the phones, trade back, draft a quarterback or take the best available position player before putting the Jets on the clock at No. 3.
It’s only the biggest decision any Giants GM has had to make since they last picked in the top five in 2004, when Gettleman’s good friend and mentor, Ernie Accorsi, drafted Philip Rivers at No. 4 and traded him in a package to the San Diego Chargers for No. 1 overall pick Eli Manning.
“When you’re picking this high, if you make a mistake, you’re done,” Gettleman said last week.
At least he’s aware.
So here is where Gettleman and the Giants stand on the pick:
Saquon Barkley, the dynamic Penn State running back, is the favorite to be the Giants’ choice at No. 2.
Ownership, Gettleman and new head coach Pat Shurmur all have placed a heavy emphasis on playing at least two more years with Eli Manning at quarterback, and all of their actions this offseason have pointed to arming this Giants team to turn around from its 3-13 season and try to win a third Super Bowl with Manning.
N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb could be Gettleman’s choice, too. Gettleman in five drafts as the Carolina Panthers GM (2013-17) selected a defensive lineman twice in the first round: Star Lotulelei 14th overall out of Utah in 2013 and Vernon Butler 30th overall out of Louisiana Tech in 2016. And the Giants love Chubb.
But they also love Barkley. Gettleman just drafted Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey eighth overall last spring for the Panthers, and neither he nor Shurmur thinks No. 2 is too high to take a back, despite the economics of the draft dictating that a high pick means a high price for that cheaper RB position.
“If you have a great running back, he immediately makes your quarterback better, your offensive line better and your passing game,” Gettleman said.
USC quarterback Sam Darnold, believed by many to be the Giants’ preferred quarterback in this draft class, is likely to go to the Browns first overall, though Cleveland has kept its pick close to the vest. Assuming that happens, it’s not out of the question Gettleman would consider a quarterback such as Wyoming’s Josh Allen (Shurmur likes tall QBs) or Josh Rosen.
There is more expectation around the league that instead of going QB, Gettleman will continue to seriously consider trading back if he gets legitimate offers from teams hoping to charge up for a quarterback. The Giants need to add depth, not just talent. Gettleman has been speaking to teams for weeks, however, and hasn’t yet swung a deal.
Part of the reason is that the Giants likely do not want to move as far back as No. 12, where the Buffalo Bills sit, because their only reward for a terrible 2017 season is this No. 2 pick and a chance to take a great player. The other is that Gettleman never has traded down, and many believe he won’t start now, especially if he has a dynamic player in mind.
Barkley appears to be that player. And if the Giants are going to draft a non-QB, frankly, he should be the one. Because this offense needs talent more than this defense. Even when the Giants went 11-5 in 2016 under Ben McAdoo, the offense was Odell Beckham Jr. and that’s it. They won on the back of a talented defense that still has the players and just battled a lot of other issues last year.
Drafting a running back high is risky. Only two RBs have gone No. 1 overall from 1982 on: Auburn’s Bo Jackson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1986 and Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter to the Cincinnati Bengals in 1995. Before that, backs such as Earl Campbell (Houston Oilers, 1978) and O.J. Simpson (Buffalo Bills, 1969) topped their drafts.
The No. 2 slot has been hit or miss for RBs, as well: Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints, 2006), Ronnie Brown (Miami Dolphins, 2005), Marshall Faulk (Indianapolis Colts, 1994), Blair Thomas (Jets, 1990), Eric Dickerson (LA Rams, 1983) and Tony Dorsett (Dallas Cowboys, 1977).
Campbell, Simpson, Faulk, Dickerson and Dorsett are Hall of Famers. Carter and Thomas, on the other hand, are two examples of Penn State running backs who have fizzled due to injury.
The Giants will be gambling big-time by passing on the opportunity to take a quarterback with Manning 37 years old. If they love one of these quarterbacks and he’s available at two, they have to take him. But if they’re not enamored with a passer, Barkley — or a trade a few picks down to acquire assets and still get a top player like Chubb or even Notre Dame offensive guard Quenton Nelson — looks like their best bet.
