With 15 games on the schedule tonight, there will be lots of opportunities to make some money. I hope this article can help you all find some good trends and give you some solid players to bet on. I like to focus on games where the player is playing an opposing team that allows a lot of shots, while simultaneously allowing a lot of shots to their respective position. I also put a lot of merit into the player’s shot averages at home vs on the road.
Let’s dive into today’s picks…
Pick #1 – Brent Burns o3.5 Shots (-110 DK)
- He has a hit rate on 3.5 shots of 63%. His home hit rate is 86%
- Burns averages 4.9 shots per game at home vs 3.3 shot per game on the road
- The Coyotes allow the 3rd most shots per game and the 2nd most shots to opposing D
Pick #2 – Noah Dobson o2.5 Shots (-136 BS)
- Dobson’s hit rate on 2.5 shots is 55%. At home, his hit rate is 78% (7 of 9)
- He averages 3.9 shots per game at home vs 2.2 on the road
- The Oilers allow the 5th most shots per game and the 3rd most shots to opposing D
Pick #3 – Owen Tippett o2.5 Shots (-125 BS)
- Tip has a 71% hit rate on o2.5 shots. His hit rate on the road is 71%
- He averages slightly more shots on the road (3.0) vs at home (2.7)
- He has hit 8/L10 games, with two of those misses coming in the past three games
Pick #4 – David Pastrnak o4.5 Shots (-110 DK)
- Pasta has a 68% hit rate on over 4.5 shots
- In a game earlier in the year, Pasta had 8 SOG against the Panthers
- He also scores in 58% of games if you want to bet goal +110
Pick #5 – Dylan Larkin o2.5 Shots (-162 BS)
- He has a 67% hit rate on 2.5 shot props. He is also 67% while at home.
- He averages more shots at home than on the road (3.4 vs 2.8)
- The Predators allow the 4th most shots to opposing C
Pick #6 – Carter Verhaeghe o2.5 Shots (-108 BS)
- 58% hit rate on o2.5 shots. This shoots up to a 78% hit rate at home
- He averages 3.6 shots per game at home vs 2.5 on the road. He has hit at home in 4/L5
- He hit against Boston earlier in the year, tallying 3 shots
Pick #7 – Rasmus Dahlin o2.5 Shots (-155 BS)
- 72% hit rate for 2.5 shot props. 100% at home.
- He averages more shots per game at home than on the road (4.1 vs 3.1)
- The Blues allow the 4th most shots to opposing D
Pick #8 – Mika Zibanejad o3.5 Shots (-134 BS)
- Mika has a 60% hit rate on o3.5 shot props
- He averages 4.3 shots per game, which is consistent whether he is home or away (4.4 vs 4.2)
- 9 SOG against the Ducks earlier in the year, who allow the most shots against overall and against opposing C
Pick #9 – Winnipeg Jets ML (+135 DK)
- Not thinking too deep into this one. I think the Jet have the better goalie and the better team
- The Wild are also just 3-5-1 at home this season
- I love the plus money on this ML play
Pick #10 – Rangers in Reg (-110 DK)
- The Rangers are 6-3-1 on the road this season
- Ducks are 3-4 at home
I hope you all can find something of value within these picks. I like the idea of using bullet points to dump in information that some people might find useful. I might continue to do it this way rather than paragraphs because it makes it a lot more digestible for the casual viewer.
(Photo Creds – Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)
Make sure to follow Drunk Gritty on Twitter and Instagram for Flyers and betting related content all season long! Happy betting!
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