November 19th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

*Limited Picks/Plays will be posted here daily, for Full Access please visit the “Membership” page…

*Since the launch of this site six years ago our stats have remained consistent. Race winner is in top three selections 66% of the time 11,606/17,725, and top choice first or second 45% of the time 8,022/17,725. The algorithm is very good at zeroing in on live runners with regularity, you will often find the triple and super in our picks.

*Saturday’s Full Card Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks/Plays Below…

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#2 Justifiable Belle 7-2 18
#4 Self Confident 6-1 17
#8 Embrace Me 30-1 17
#1 Tangential 5-1 16 2nd $6.60

Race 2:

#5 Bossy Becky 6-1 18 2nd $8.40
#2 Slow Down Summer 5-2 17
#8 Central Speed 3-1 16
#3 Splashy 7-2 15 4th

Race 3:

#7 Space Launch 4-1 33
#1 It Can Be Done 5-1 32
#3 Analyze It 5-2 31
#2 Jerry the Nipper 7-2 30 1st $13.80

Race 4:

#7 Be the Boss 9-5 31 4th
#2 Endowed 4-1 29
#5 Millean 6-1 28 2nd $7.90
#1 Blu Grotto 3-1 27

Race 5:

#4 Litigate 2-1 19 1st $11.60
#1 Equal Protection 8-5 19 2nd e $2.30 Ex $27.40
#8 Slip Mahoney 3-1 18 4th
#1a Index Fund 8-5 18

Race 6:

#2 Dripping Gold 5-2 34 2nd $2.90
#6 Good Medicine 6-1 33 scratched
#10 Chulainn 6-1 32 1st $8.10 Ex $35
#3 Exult 10-1 31

Race 7:

#8 Steady On 2-1 33 2nd $3.20
#1 Churchtown 6-1 33 1st $13.20 Ex $39
#2 Grand Sonata 3-1 32 3rd $2.70 Tri $114.48
#6 Dakota Gold 9-2 31 4th Spr $366.40

Race 8:

#4 Mister Candy Ride 4-1 27
#2 Emperor’s Cause 9-2 26 4th
#3 Abundant Honor 3-1 25
#9 Cash in a Flash 8-1 25

Race 9:

#12 Tis a Pity 3-1 29
#3 Shigeko 6-1 28
#9 Masterof the Tunes 4-1 27 3rd $4.50
#4 Lady of Thoroton 12-1 27

Race 10:

#9 Maddie’s Grace 6-1 14
#11 Maggie T 10-1 13 1st $11.00
#2 Sonja Knips 4-1 12
#6 Irish Empress 12-1 11 3rd $8.20

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 2,4,8,1 x

Race 2: 5,2,8,3 x

Race 3: 7,1,3 x

Race 4: 7,2 x

Race 5: 4,1/1a 4

$.50 Ticket: $96

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 5,2,8,3 x

Race 3: 7,1,3,2 2

Race 4: 7,2,5 x

Race 5: 4,1/1a,8 4

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 4 (4-7):

Race 4: 7,2,5 x

Race 5: 4,1/1a,8 4

Race 6: 2,6,10 *6 scratched using 2,10,3 10

Race 7: 8,1,2,6 1

$.50 Ticket: $54

Pick 6:

Race 5: 4,1/1a 4

Race 6: 2 x

Race 7: 8,1,2 1

Race 8: 4,2,3 x

Race 9: 12,3,9

Race 10: 9,11,2

$1.00 Ticket: $162

Late Pick 5:

Race 6: 2,6,10,3 *6 scratched using 2,10,3,7 10

Race 7: 8,1,2 1

Race 8: 4,2,3 x

Race 9: 12,3,9

Race 10: 9,11,2

$.50 Ticket: $162

Late Pick 4:

Race 7: 8,1,2,6 1

Race 8: 4,2,3 x

Race 9: 12,3,9

Race 10: 9,11,2,6

$.50 Ticket: $72

Churchill Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#4 Southern Sense 4-1 12
#6 Supe 5-1 11
#10 Ra’s Al Ghul 10-1 10
#3 The Big Mozz 5-1 9

Race 2:

#3 Steely Danza 2-1 26 2nd $2.88
#2 Holiday House 7-2 25 4th
#4 Romancer 7-2 25
#5 Mischievous Rogue 5-1 24

Race 3:

#8 Duplantis 4-1 14
#2 Suitable 3-1 14 1st $5.20
#7 Led Tasso 4-1 13 4th
#10 Let’s Go Random 12-1 12

Race 4:

#2 Frigid Lady 5-2 27 2nd $2.98
#1 Saenz 3-1 26
#6 Girl Afraid 7-2 25
#4 Condensation 5-1 25 1st $13.36

Race 5:

#5 Cape Trafalgar 2-1 19 3rd $2.24
#4 Without a Song 8-1 18
#1 Town Branch 8-1 17 2nd $10.30
#6 F Five 10-1 16 1st $18.66

Race 6:

#3 Reagan 3-1 20
#11 Lark’s Mischief 8-1 19 3rd
#1 Easy Action 2-1 18 4th
#5 Chicago’s Gray 12-1 17

Race 7:

#4 Ampersand 6-1 28 2nd $5.58
#11 Blue Kentucky 5-2 27 1st $5.66 Ex $23.50
#1 Bonus Appreciation 8-1 27
#12 Primer Dimer 8-1 26

Race 8:

#2 Corona Bolt 9-2 19 1st $6.60
#11 Mutaawid 10-1 18
#7 Communication Memo 5-2 17 2nd $3.56
#5 Carcano 3-1 17

Race 9:

#8 Barista 4-1 32
#10 Fairchild 3-1 31
#6 Caldee 5-1 30
#2 Roughly a Diamond 5-1 29

Race 10:

#2 Mariah’s Princess 3-1 34
#1 Coach 9-5 33
#3 Center Aisle 6-1 32
#6 She Can’t Sing 5-2 31

Race 11:

#9 Gate Runner 4-1 32
#3 Strong Quality 3-1 31
#5 Ten Gauge 5-1 30
#1 Doctor Nash 10-1 29

Churchill Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 4,6,10,3 x

Race 2: 3,2,4 x

Race 3: 8,2,7 2

Race 4: 2,1 x

Race 5: 5,4,1,6 6

$.50 Ticket: $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,2,4,5 x

Race 3: 8,2,7,10 2

Race 4: 2,1,6 x

Race 5: 5,4,1 x

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 5 (4-8):

Race 4: 2,1,6 x

Race 5: 5,4,1,6 6

Race 6: 3,11,1 x

Race 7: 4,11,1 11

Race 8: 2,11,7 2

$.50 Ticket: $162

Pick 4 (5-8):

Race 5: 5,4,1,6 6

Race 6: 3,11,1 x

Race 7: 4,11,1 11

Race 8: 2,11,7,5 2

$.50 Ticket: $72

Pick 6:

Race 6: 3,11,1 x

Race 7: 4,11,1,12 11

Race 8: 2,11,7,5 2

Race 9: 8,10,6

Race 10: 2,1

Race 11: 9,3

$.20 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 5:

Race 7: 4,11,1,12 11

Race 8: 2,11,7,5 2

Race 9: 8,10,6

Race 10: 2,1

Race 11: 9,3,5

$.50 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 4:

Race 8: 2,11,7,5 2

Race 9: 8,10,6,2

Race 10: 2,1

Race 11: 9,3,5,1

$.50 Ticket: $64

“Strength Variable” – Is a numerical value that gets assigned to each runner, the end result of the system that I use, which evaluates the horses in as many as thirty categories per race. It gives a visual of races where there are standouts , or conversely, heats where it is very difficult to separate. The races with better quality of horses will score higher values, while lower level claimers and maiden races with limited information will be lower numbers. Top picks that eclipse the second and third choice by three, four or more points will be runners that have a higher percentage of winning. These may be races where it is easier to find a single, where as races in which the values are close , and even tied in some instances may be races to spread in.

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