A series of attacks and counter-attacks between Israel and Hezbollah led to an escalation near the South Lebanon border. On 4th August 2021, militants fired 3 rockets into Israel. The Israeli Defence Forces responded with artillery and airstrikes in South Lebanon. This led to the Iran supported Hezbollah, the militant group which controls most of South Lebanon, to fire 19 rockets into Israel. The attacks represent a major escalation and although most of the rockets were intercepted, fear of a massive retaliation and further escalation has gripped the region.
The new Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett is under pressure from the opposition to display strength to Hezbollah. The US-Iran talks on the resumption of JCPOA modified Nuclear Deal is also on the cards. This is the reason for the US to persuade Israel to refrain from a harder stance which may lead to an opening of hostilities. The Hezbollah factions also showed no interests in challenging Israel into an escalation. Although a local channel conveyed proportionality in fatalities.
The Iran talks with P5+1 on a nuclear deal will determine the future of Lebanon’s relations with Israel. Since Hezbollah has earlier demonstrated that it can be a useful tool for Iran to put pressure on Western interests in Israel, a failure in the nuclear deal will certainly be used as an excuse to ramp up tensions. The swearing-in of Ebrahim Raisi as the President of Iran has already thrown up significant troubles for West. Raisi belongs to the hard-line section of Iran and has remained vocal on US and Israel.
Israel has blamed Iran for a UAV attack on MT Mercer Street in the Gulf of Oman. Though Tehran denies involvement, things might slide in case of further such attacks. In case Israel hits Iran in retaliation, Hezbollah will be propped by Tehran to fire more rockets as deterrence. The likelihood is low currently but if protests in Tehran break out and Bennett comes under pressure to show strength, both sides may be unable to avoid a violent spiral in the region. An Iran-Israel conflict is likely short, with Tehran relying more on its militias to carry on the long war.
Hezbollah has emerged as a strong organization and has presented itself as the sole saviour of Lebanon. The fatal Beirut Port Explosion that shocked the earth on 4th August has raised the military costs for Hezbollah though it enjoys broad support of its factions and other militant groups who depend on it.
However, there are factions who are not taking the Shia organization’s militancy lightly. The local Sunnis, Christians and Lebanese Druze have often clashed with Hezbollah. In recent rocket attacks with Israel, the Druze were unwelcoming of the attacking parties in South Lebanon.
In case of an escalation and a broader conflict, the internal factions in Lebanon are likely to spar with Hezbollah leading to condition of civil war. But these communities will also be affected by Israeli operations which might help Hezbollah’s cause too. For peace to continue, both sides may be persuaded by opponents Iran and US to halt the attacks.
Photo Credit : Getty Images