By Dr. Ankit Srivastava, Chief Editor
The previous article in the earlier edition explored the possibilities of change in security measures of India under Modi’s re-election as the country’s Prime Minister and with the appointment of three import personals, now holding office of importance- Amit Shah as the Home Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar as the Minister of External Affairs and Ajit Doval as the National Security Advisor. The article even delved into the arena of evolving strict stance of India when it comes to national autonomy along with extending cordial hands for regional and international co-operation and vehemently studied the changing facets of the US relationship with India under Modi’s governance.
This article continuing with the same motive explores the impact of change in security measures to be adopted by India on its relationship with its neighbours, especially China and Pakistan- both vehemently affecting India’s regional and international security measures. India’s future security policies is to undergo minor changes per the present socio-political scenario with the Modi-led NDA Government shining with numerical dominance in the Parliament. The shift in extraneous factors specially in regard to India’s relationship with its immediate neighbours- China and Pakistan is to undergo some changes with Modi’s re-election.
The shortcomings holding the potential to slow down India’s progress in terms of national security is to be tackled by the deterministic spirit of the charismatic leader and his adept team on urgent basis. A January 2019 report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence noted that the army’s weaponry at present was at best adequate for only 10 days of intense warfare, a shortcoming that had previously been highlighted in a 2017 report by India’s Comptroller and Auditor General. The issue occupies the top-notch position in the priority list of the new government that it attempts to solve not just by augmenting the allocation of Defence budget but also by diluting the probability of a direct confrontation with China. The border stand-off in Doklam in 2017 almost led to conflict between the two countries, and accelerated the militarisation of India’s north-eastern border with China.
Relation with China
The informal China-India Wuhan summit in April 2018, served to be the stepping stone for India to adjust its diplomatic ties with China, but despite the efforts, a number of issues still surfaces Beijing-New Delhi relationship in terms of security. The boundary disputes in Arunachal Pradesh – ‘Southern Tibet’ for China – and Aksai Chin, which India claims as part of Jammu and Kashmir, China’s patronage of Pakistan, and China’s opposition to India’s aspiration for a permanent UNSC seat and membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) are some in the list of many. But what has augmented the possibility of dialogue to seek common grounds between the two nations is China’s trade war with the US.
Aware of the strategic importance of India on global platform and the role it could play in the China-US trade war, Modi’s foreign policies with Beijing is to seek advantages of these factors to fasten the loose ropes with China so as to tie the knots of mutual co-operation using informal summits and informal forum of Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS), the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation (BCIM), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The probability of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership between China and India could even account for 30% of global GDP and the countries common interests in an ‘oil buyers’ club could even challenge the dominance of the OPEC.
Relations with Pakistan
India’s relationship with Pakistan has never been too cordial because of Pakistan’s hypocritical stance on security matters and its both overt and covert support of terrorism at large. New-Delhi and Islamabad diplomatic relation took a downward slide to hit the nadir after the suicide attack in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir, in February 2019 carried out by the JeM terrorist organization, vehemently supported and protected by Pakistan.
India under Modi’s leadership has shed its earlier policy of tolerance and in his first term has took to adopt retaliatory measures to conduct two successful “surgical strikes” to consolidate the image of “Naya Hindustan”. India’s airstrike on a militant base camp in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province revoked Modi’s principle of intolerance of the evil of terrorism.
Fully aware of Pakistan’s deceptive policies, India under the leadership of Modi is to continue with its strict measures of abstains to negate the prospects of resuming dialogue with Pakistan in the near-to-medium term, unless Pakistan is ready to mend its misleading ways by relying of duplicity and pretence.
At the policy level, India is likely to continue its policy of no contact with Pakistan through mid-2019 and later, unless it revisits its decision under the US pressure. Modi’s charismatic influence on international platform resulted in the UNSC designation in May of JeM Chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist – through a proposal co-sponsored by France and the US, with Chinese concurrence. Although an all-out war between the two nuclear-armed states is highly dubious, New Delhi’s Pakistan policy will almost certainly combine international diplomacy of pressurising it towards international isolation with forays into Pakistani territory to pursue militants after any future attack.
India continues to allege that terrorism in Indian-administered Kashmir has its roots in Pakistan as despite security force operations along the Indo-Pakistan border, militants from Pakistan continue to infiltrate into India. Consequently, alongside repeated threats to repeal Article 370 of the Indian constitution (which bestows Jammu and Kashmir a special status within the Union of India), the NDA will aim to stabilise Kashmir through a three-pronged hard-line policy of annihilating active militants, acting against over-ground supporters of militancy and their sources of finance, and mobilising international pressure on Pakistan. Amit Shah’s appointment as the Home Minister is likely to monitor the success of the first two goals under Modi’s leadership.
India is unlikely to rely on the development of a regional counter-terrorism co-operative framework with Pakistan, as any framework adopted would serve as mere façade witnessing Pakistan’s love for violence and extremism. Increased surveillance and a vigilant stand against its neighbouring countries along with India’s reliance on the US for the real-time inputs on terrorism is to continue with Modi’s second term of leadership.
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Email: ankits@newdelhitimes.com
Twitter: @ankitndt
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