December 5, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | S Man | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Yes This Time | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Thirtyminutemass | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Tour the World | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Immortal | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Roll Tyler | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ames Mister | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Half Cocked | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Global Empire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tlaloc | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Louisville Legend | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ten Brownies | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Set Hut | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spring Value | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jake the Band Man | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Booth Road Shine | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eights Wild | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tensas Talk | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cha Vez | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hero of the Hour | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Copper Fiddle | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Morhawk | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Camps Bay | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | More Ice | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | T. J. B. Oorah | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mishko | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mom Said Yes | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rock On Kitten | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Causforcelebration | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Fredonian | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Caramel Angel | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mayor Cobb | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Citi | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Holy Spirit | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jennovodka | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jackfruit | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hardly Blue | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Son of Patriot | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brother Doc | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | New Hampshire | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hot Stove League | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lode of Blarney | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Ultimate Irony | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Vermilion | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bryce Canyon | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Charity for All | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Olympic Champion | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Run Far | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Creative | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Xietelehuas | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hiccup | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Benson | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blonde On Tap | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Making Progress | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Bama Belle | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Im Coming Over | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wave of Goodness | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Double Dare You | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Magnetism | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Killer Dress | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Stage Fright | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Burning Ambition | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Arm Candy | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blissful Change | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Joqular | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stephanies Jewel | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Guided Missile | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Man of Honor | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pat Daddy | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Energizer | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Verb | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grove Daddy | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kadri | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jazz It Up | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High Cruise | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Destiny Way | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pan Zareta S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winning Envelope | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Play On | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Into Mystic | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Change of Control | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dance Rhythms | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle Z | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | A Bit of Both | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Mucho Amor | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Best Kept Secret | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Sterling Miss | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | On Probation | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Xanthique | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Lost Love | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dixieincandyland | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kamara Vision | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unanimously | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wish Upon a Star | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Star Is Born Now | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kansas King | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Visions of Gold | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Multidimensional | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.