Betting

Monday Selections: 27th May 2024

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That was a disappointing Sunday, especially as it was clear after two furlongs that both Elegant Man and Azada will struggle to make any impact in their respective races.

Elegant Man never looked happy on the gras. Whether it was just rain that went into the ground, or the surface itself, who knows. Azada was way too keen to have any chance of winning a competitive 1000 Guineas.

It was only her second career run, back off a break; she’ll learn and remains of interest, given she did travel well for quite a long time.

……..

3.45 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The short priced favourite Hover on The Wind looks opposable given the much softer ground conditions today, albeit he acts on soft, his best performances came on decent ground, or at least, no less than good to soft in places.

A new career-best is required too. Not impossible, but it’s difficult to see where there’s any value in the price, with all possible improvement very much factored in.

At a much bigger price I’m quite keen on Parisiac, who caught my eye in his most recent run, back in March at Doncaster. That was a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.

He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.

Down to his last winning mark now, Parisiac should be ready for a big run. In his last two runs in 2023, he achieved 71 and 75 speed ratings, and if he can get back to that level of form he must rate a big chance today.

The ground is certainly in his favour, as two of his three career-bests on speed ratings have been achieved in the mud. The 5lb claim of Tommie Jakes is an added bonus today, especially as the apprentice is 3-1-1 when on board.

10pts win – Parisiac @ 8/1

……..

4.35 Redcar: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks an open race and I’ll take a chance on Stressfree, who will enjoy the soft ground and ran much better in all three starts this, including when well beaten the last two times.

On his seasonal reappearance he was an excellent runner-up behind Qitaal, who enjoyed the run of the race and was seriously well-handicapped on that day. I felt that performance warranted an upgrade.

Stressfree appeared to have disappointed the next two times. Though, from off the pace, it was always going to be a struggle at Ripon, and he made some decent progress while not enjoying the clearest of passages, with the winner in the different world, anyway.

The ground was never to suit when last seen at York. Nonetheless, once again, he travelled well enough and made some good progress before running out of steam and possibly being saved for another day.

Not sure he’s up to this class today, but off 85, with the visor on for the first time, and a good draw close to the pace, he could get an ideal race, on the ground he loves.

10pts win – Stressfree @ 12/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 26th May 2024

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Winners are hard to get for quite a while now, so I was delighted to cheer home Candleford as he landed the Orby Stakes from the front in good style. A second winner for the week.

He was well supported, and I take some general positives from the fact that the majority of selections this week went off shorter SPs than the price I got.

Unfortunately Matilda Picotte ran her race in the paddock, and Unquestionable looked rather unimpressive prior to the race. Rosallion won the Irish 2000 Guineas, in the end, he prevailed in a thriller of a finish.

………

3.45 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas, 1m

It’s going to be interesting to see what impact the impending rain has on the ground, come 3.45pm at the Curragh, this afternoon. Currently still decent ground, the forecast looks grim.

No matter how much rain falls between now and then, the filly I have been waiting for to return this season won’t mind: Azada. One of the horses to follow this year, I was hoping we’d see her in a trial prior the Guineas.

Dermot Weld said as much, but at the same time he’s won this race with fillies on their seasonal debuts, and he seemed reasonably positive about her chances, when speaking earlier this week.

I take that as “good enough” to back her, especially at a big price that possibly/hopefully underestimates her true chance – if, indeed, ready to go. She’s significantly on the drift in the betting this morning, though. Not a good sign?

Azada was mightily impressive on debut in her sole career run toward the end of last year. At Leopardstown, in a 7 furlongs maiden in horrible ground, she accelerated in superb style and left the rest of the field standing.

She overcame signs of greenness and deep ground. Even though Dermot Weld said she may prefer decent ground, I suspect she will always be at her best with some juice in ground, given her pedigree shows tons of good soft ground form too.

That Leopardstown run was notably for how easily she kicked clear under a hands and heels ride. Doing that from the back of the field is never easy at Leopardstown. And she achieved a superb 82 debut speed rating for that performance.

The form hasn’t worked out, mind. But Azada looked all class and you would think she’s got tons of scope to improve as a 3-year-old.

Whether today will see her to best effect on her seasonal reappearance remains to be seen. Other rivals are race fit and I suspect, if she’s ridden with restraint, she will need plenty of luck from her #2 draw. She’s got pace around her, that’s positive. But if the pace tires at some point, she may be stuck on the rail.

It worth a risk, at a price that I would have expected to be half that. This renewal of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks competitive in nature, but there’re plenty of question marks about the main principles.

10pts win – Azada @ 10/1

……

3.10 Curragh: Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, 1m 2.5f

Can you trust Auguste Rodin? His best is too good for the rivals he meets today. But he’s either hot or cold and you can’t be sure what you get, especially as he returns off a break today.

Aiden O’Brien trained horses often improve for their return run, and you would expect Auguste Rodin to fall into the same pattern, with bigger targets looming large on the horizon.

At given prices, I’m happy to take him on, for that reason alone. There are enough viable alternatives in this field, thankfully.

White Birch comes to mind, obviously. He’s won two in a row, has been much more professional, racing closer to the pace and that saw him land the Mooresbridge and Alleged Stakes over 10 furlongs in good style.

Despite the rain forecast, the ground may not turn soft enough for the grey to be seen to best effect, though.

Lumiere Rock loves this track, ran often well in hot races against her own sex last year and takes on the boys now. She may get it easy at the front of the race and may enjoy a tactical advantage for that reason alone.

Nonetheless, the filly has to step up significantly as her career-best speed ratings aren’t good enough to win a Group 1, let alone one against male opposition.

Mashoor also enjoys this course and distance. He was disappointing in his two runs this season, and will hope not too much rain will go into the ground. He may track the pace, though, could be in a prime position, and may outrun his big odds.

Saying that, I’m firmly in the Elegant Man camp today. The son of Arrogate hasn’t impressed on speed ratings yet, but I was seriously taken by his superb performance in the Easter Classic at Newcastle.

From the widest gate, he overcame a sluggish start, to lead a highly competitive field from the front and never looked in doubt in the closing stages, only late getting fully ridden out to the line.

He followed on from a visually impressive run at Dundalk in January and an excellent runner-up effort behind subsequent Sheema Classic winner Rebel’s Romance.

Elegant Man has ran only on the All-Weather so far. It remains to be seen how he can translate that form to turf. That’s the key question today. Reportedly he worked well on turf in training, but you never quite know what you get until a horses proves it in a race.

His pedigree doesn’t give too much clues either. Hence it’s a bit of a gamble. In saying that, if he can translate those brilliant sand performances to turf, he should be a huge runner today. We’ll know our fate early in the race, I reckon.

10pts win – Elegant Man @ 9/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 25th May 2024

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2.30 Curragh: Group 2 Greenland Stakes, 6f

It seems I’m too late to the party, given nearly all juice has been squeezed out of her price this morning, but I still feel there’s a tiny bit of value left in a race that probably will very much develop toward the stands rail.

With that in mind, Matilda Picotte is perfectly placed to utilise her excellent gate speed to grab the rail. The ground is slightly quicker than ideal, the drop in trip also a slight question mark. But the filly has shown she can handle both.

Her recent run in the Saudi Turf Sprint, then over 7 furlongs, came on quick ground. She stormed out of the widest gate to grab the lead after an early tussle with Art Power. That early speed will be of huge help today. She led until the final furlong after setting a hot pace, and it was no surprise, after those earlier exertions, to see her fade back to 5th.

I believe, given the hot pace to be expected today, with a handful of horses usually keen to get on with things, plus the nature of the uphill finish at the Curragh, her stamina will be a useful asset as well.

Given, Matilda Picotte has won over 6 furlongs, in actual fact she’s a course and distance winner, the concerns over ground and trip are much smaller than her overall profile would suggest.

10pts win – Matilda Picotte @ 13/2

…….

3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m 4f

Demot Weld’s filly Sumiha must have a big shout, having been seriously unfortunate not to win at Cork when last seen. That was only her second ever career run. Slight concerns remain over the much faster ground, and any improvement is very much factored into the price already.

Raise You loves this course and distance and has a decent shout if he can take another step forward after his fair return off a long break in the Alleged Stakes back in April. He’s a short price, too, given it still requires faith that he can get back to his form from two years ago.

British visitor Candleford has been friendless in the market but the William Haggas trained gelding makes plenty of appeal on his seasonal reappearance, despite having to give weight away.

For one, he goes well fresh. He also should be in a decent spot, not too far off the pace when it matters most. Also his 2023 form is clearly the strongest on offer, especially the runner-up performance at Kempton behind Bay Bridge rating highly, as he also achieved a 101 speed rating.

The 1m 4f trip on decent to fast ground should be ideal for Candleford to show his best side.

10pts win – Candleford @ 5/1

…….

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m

Rosallion looks a fair favourite. He’s proven to get (just) home over a mile and handled faster ground on his excellent racecourse debut last summer.

A fine runner-up in the English 2000 Guineas, where he achieved – no surprise – a career-best on multiple fronts. For all that, a mile does seem to stretch his stamina to the absolute limits, and the stiffer finish at the Curragh will test it to the max.

With that in mind, plus the fact a best 98 speed rating after five career runs, makes him look somewhat vulnerable. He’s a price to take on… saying that, this Irish 2000 Guineas field looks weak.

Of course you must rate Aiden O’Brien’s chances in this race. He’ll have River Tiber ready for his seasonal reappearance. On pedigree, a mile won’t be an issue.

He’s got to take a significant step forward, though, after his form tailed off toward the end of his juvenile campaign, and he’s yet to run a speed rating that screams “superstar”.

Craven Staked winner and English Guineas 3rd Haatem loos a rock solid chance to be right there when it matters most. He looks quite exposed, though. How much more improvement is there to come?

The value for me appears to be with Unquestionable. Clearly things didn’t quite go to plan this year so far. Aiden O’Brien admitted as much. While there’s every chance the Wootton Bassett gelding will need the run, I’ve no doubt this won’t be merely a public gallop. This is the Guineas, after all.

His juvenile form stands up, given his strong runs in the first half of 2023, and subsequently his excellent second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere behind Rosallion, which warranted an upgrade, given he was closer to the pace and seriously keen.

Unquestionable proved his unquestionable talent at the Breeders Cup with the final race last year. He was always tracking the pace and showed an impressive turn of foot as he kicked clear in the last two furlongs.

With that in mind, fast ground today won’t worry him. In fact it may suit him more than others. He stays the trip, no issues there and is drawn right beside the likely pace in Take Me To Church.

10pts win – Unquestionable @ 9.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 24th May 2024

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4.30 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5.5f

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot two weeks ago coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually to lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. If she can build on that run, she should have something in hand right now.

Dropping down in class, and slightly in trip to the 5.5f at Bath should suit, especially as she races against her own sex today. Her draw appears ideal, because having confirmed front-runner Connie’s Rose drawn right beside her will allow Starproof to sit on her tail, getting towed into the closing stages.

The filly is quite ground independent and won’t mind any potential soft patches left in the going description. The handicapper has been kind, having left her on the same 73 mark as she was allowed to race at Ascot. She won’t find many better opportunities to score.

10pts win – Starproof @ 4/1

…….

5.10 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This doesn’t strike me as the strongest race for this class and that offers Safari Dream a chance to outrun his price, as he who moves up in grade after he caught the eye in his last two runs.

He couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground the last time at Salisbury, yet he travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on his penultimate start, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and can strike if things fall right.

The handicapper dropped him another pound, despite those two good runs, which could prove lenient. The better ground today should suit, and he’s ran a career-best speed rating over this course and distance twelve months ago.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 17/2

……..

7.20 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 1m

I was sweet on Blues Emperor in the Lincoln back in March. That day didn’t panned out the way it was hoped, as he was always in the wind from early on, helping to push hot pace that wasn’t sustainable.

Back from a break since then, he’s back at the Curragh, and over a course and distance he’s got a 2-1-1 record, on decent enough ground that’ll suit.

He should be at his prime this year, after a fruitful campaign in 2023 where he improved with nearly every run – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way that particular race panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

Today is a highly competitive contest, but one where there should be less competition for the pace than at Doncaster. It can prove crucial racing toward the front over this CD, so he may enjoy the run of the race today. Off a 96 mark, he could still have a bit more to offer as well.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 17/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd May 2024

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7.17 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Two I like: Jungle Hill was an obvious eyecatcher last time at Wolverhampton. A course and distance winner off his current mark, he’s a big chance. He moves ever so slightly up in class, and with that in mind he’s a short enough price.

I’m more interested in Kessaar Power, who entered my notebook back in March when he caught the eye over a wrong trip at Southwell. He had excuses for the somewhat lesser runs subsequently, although didn’t help his cause with sluggish starts.

That’s a clear danger today. If that happens he’ll be beaten within the first hundred yards. At the same time I’m prepared to take the risk because he’s usually seen up front, has the #1 draw to attack the race from and is seriously well-handicapped, in theory.

This course and distance brought the best out of him in the past. A 4-1-1 record, and his most recent run here was better than the bare form suggests.

Down to a mark of 57, with the solid assistance of 3lb claiming Grace McEntee, the gelding looks ready for the big run. He’s also entered for Yarmouth next week, the flat course he’s been most effective at, suggesting connections may believe the 5-year-old is certainly ready to go close.

10pts win – Kessaar Power @ 11/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 22nd May 2024

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Finally a winner! The wait was long… and painful. What a nightmare over the last weeks. Thankfully Dion Baker managed to fight gamely to get his head in front when it mattered most in a thriller of a race at Brighton yesterday afternoon.

He went off a 5/2 favourite. The 4/1 I got were good value; though, of course, nothing to shout about if you burned through last years profits as quickly as I normally do through a pack of Tuc Crackers. Hopefully things turn for the better from now on….

……..

8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Giant looks a different horse since his gelding last October. The 4-year-old showed glimpses of ability in the past, but was often too keen for his own good.

Since his reappearance at Kempton in March, where he won in impressive style from the front and achieved a career-best speed rating as well, he was able to follow-up with two more highly credible performances.

Earlier this months, once again at Kempton, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms and that performance suggested he could still be a handful of pounds ahead of his current mark, despite a subsequent rise by 2lb. That may prove lenient, though, given he was only beaten by a head and somewhat unfortunate that day.

Nearly taken out by a badly veering rival right out of the gates, he couldn’t get to lead, but got going quickly again and tracked the hot pace. Inside the final three furlongs he was switched left for effort, appeared flat footed for a few strides, before showing a superb attitude battling hard to the line.

He was only beaten by Thapa Vc, who was extremely well-handicapped that day, and who avoided the red hot early pace, sitting in midfield (goes today, too, may struggle from off the pace today).

No question, today is a deep enough race. Brasil Power with preferred headgear combination and back in form looks potentially ominous. Rajindri loves this CD, and could find herself nicely towed into the home straight. Zero Carbon drops in grade and showed good form lately.

However, none of them appear overly well-handicapped, in my view. Hence what speaks for Giant, beside that he appears still on the up and therefore likely better than a current 82 Official Rating, is his good low draw, and a pace scenario that will suit, for this naturally forward gelding.

An easy lead may or may not be on the cards, but other potential pace setters can be hit an miss with their efforts to lead and only Zero Carbon, drawn right beside Giant, may provide the only real competition.

Given he should have it easy moving forward, whether leading, or perhaps following closely, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle you can expect a proper run, especially over this course and distance (4-1-3).

The price, in fairness, is skinny enough, and right on the edge for me, as my strike rate tends to be poor, comparably to what it should be, at the lower end of prices.

Saying that I was happy enough to see 4’s able to get matched completely this morning and I’d have him about a point shorter, if I had to price up the race, simply because he’s the most rock solid, in-form selection, who’ get his race and may still be ahead of his mark.

10pts win – Giant @ 4/1 SM

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st May 2024

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It’s just not happening right now… strong run from Showboated who was a clear passage denied at a crucial stage and as a result had to delay his fully effort. DH for 3rd, eventually.

Another solid run and placed selection at double figure prices…. thankfully, at the very least, selections outrun expectations…. but that W remains elusive. A nightmare.

………

3.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Dion Baker is in smashing form and a repeat his last three highly eyecatching runs will see him win this.

He bumped into a couple last time at Wolverhampton, where he was hard at work early on to grab the lead in what should prove a hot contest – the winner was certainly well-handicapped on the day.

The two times before, at Yarmouth over a mile and prior to that over 6 furlongs, the gelding travelled pretty well and showed a lovely attitude to fight gamely, although was possibly outclassed somewhat and beaten by the race dynamics too.

Brighton, 7 furlongs, and the chance for having it easy enough to get the lead, down in class where he’s got a 3-1-2 record on turf, including his sole turf win, as well as achieved in each run good speed ratings, should afford him a cracking chance to add a third career victory to his CV.

He was only a shoulder beaten in higher grade last summer over this course and distance off 6lb higher than today. Since then he ran 64+ speed ratings on three occasions on sand or turf.

Currently down to a seriously dangerous mark of 63 the 5-year-old must be the prime contender in this race, as long as the rain doesn’t turn the ground too soft. It should subside, and not be enough to get much worse than good, though.

10pts win – Dion Baker @ 4/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 20th May 2024

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3.30 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Showboated caught the for different reasons in each of his three runs this year and off bottom weight could play a bigger part than the betting may wants give him this morning.

He meets Pinpoint again, the one horse he finished behind three weeks ago at Ayr. That was a career-best performance on every measure, including speed ratings.

Dropped He was always travelling on the outside, right up with the pace, without cover, quite keenly. The winner was following closely, but always nicely covered up. That made the difference on the day.

He dropped to the minimum trip and responded well to that, showing good early speed, for all that he can be a bit awkward out the gates, and and kept on once under pressure with a good attitude.

On his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in March Showboated entered the notebook for the first time. Not quite the best of starts, he was keen subsequently, travelled well enough and showed a good attitude to finish his race.

He never landed a blow over 7f next time. But that trip was too far, he was overly keen, and also interfered halfway through the race.

A sprint over 5 furlongs with plenty of pace could be exactly what this gelding needs. Fast ground is a question, but the pace scenario should help him and he’s drawn right beside one of the likely front-runners too.

Obviously he moves up up in class, meets some higher rated rivals today. Although, this 0-62 looks a particularly poor contest for this class. Off 8-8 he looks a tasty price, who can, at the very least, outrun his price.

10pts win – Showboated @ 9.5/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 16th May 2024

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3.45 York: Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2.5f

Charlie Appleby is hitting some form of late as his big guns fire, so that adds weight to the fact that Ancient Wisdom has been backed to likely go off a short enough price in a hot Dante Stakes this afternoon.

We haven’t seen the impressive winner of the Futurity Stakes this year yet, that means some questions have to be asked about his fitness. But of course, if he could transfer his juvenile form to this year, he’d be an exciting horse to follow.

Ancient Wisdom’s Autumn Stakes win was the best any of seven going to post today had achieved on speed ratings. Saying that, different ground, and different trip today – let’s see whether he can run to that level of form today. I’m prepared, as so often, to oppose a short priced favourite.

Caviar Hights looks also a highly promising colt, and rates a pretty fair price, indeed. He achieved a superb 104 speed rating in the Listed Newmarket Stakes a fortnight ago.

Given he seemed to have no issues with the trip or the ground, he’s a prime chance today, if he could repeat that performance, which screamed Group 1 class.

Today is a tougher contest, though. And a different track. Those are the only two – albeit small – question marks I’d have.

Once again, though, I’ll have to go with God’s Window today. I’m prepared to forgive his most recent desperately disappointing showing at Chester.

He completely missed the break and it was basically race over there and then. God’s Window has a bit of history in that regard. That’s a clear and obvious question mark.

On the other hand, I remain convinced that’s a colt with serious talent. And the Gosden’s must think so too, otherwise they wouldn’d send him here after the recent disappointment.

To be honest, I can practically copy and paste my thoughts from prior to the Dee Stakes today – they apply 100% once more: the question about the ground has to be brought up again: does he need juice in the ground to be seen to best effect?

What speaks against that notion: his half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs prior to Chester.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit. Hopefully today he doesn’t lose the race at the start, so we get a proper answer to the question how good God’s Window really is.

10pts win – God’s Window @ 15/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 15th May 2024

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3.45 York: Group 3 Musidora Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This doesn’t look an overly deep renewal of the Musidora. Perhaps we said the same last year, when Soul Sister romped home? That was quite the day to celebrate for me… good old days.

Today I’m yet again keen on finding a way to get the favourite beat. For all that it doesn’t appear to be an easy task: Friendly Soul clearly is a filly with an abundance of talent. This daughter of Kingman slaughtered her rivals in the Pretty Polly Stakes ten days ago and achieved an excellent 98 speed rating that day as well.

Can she cope with the step up in trip today? The pedigree gives her every opportunity, though, she showed plenty of pace and may have to do the ‘donkey work’ today once again. On the other hand, Gosden’s have a tremendous record in this race.

Given we only have seen her twice so far, it’s hard to know where her ceiling is. The same can be said for a couple of other fillies in this field, at this stage of the season, and I’m always prepared to take on an odds-on shot, especially if there’s a meaningful alternative.

I’m especially intrigued by Mayfair stepping up in trip. I’m keeping an eye on the daughter of Justify since her eyecatching debut at Galway last August.

That was a pretty strong maiden with four subsequent winners, including recent Salsabil Stakes runner-up Purple Lilly. Mayfair did plenty wrong that day, and has continued to appear learning on the job ever since.

Her seasonal reappearance at the Curragh caught my attention once again. She was up with the pace, always in the headwind without cover, and that performance warranted an upgrade, given the winner was well covered throughout.

The form isn’t anything to shout about, and it was disappointing to see Mayfair getting beaten at Dundalk the next time, albeit by a potentially smart filly in Star Magnolia.

Mayfair is a full-sister of 104 rated Unless, a progressive 3-year-old last season, who improved with experience and who won a Listed race over 10 furlongs, plus was a fine runner-up in the Group 3 Royal Whip next time.

Unless did her best work on decent ground, and you would hope Mayfair can improve for better ground today as well. So far she raced only on heavy or on the sand. Showers are rolling on through Wednesday at York but shouldn’t turn the ground soft.

To my untrained eye Mayfair never looked like a filly with the speed and gears for 7 furlongs. It’s a gamble to move up right away to the Musidora trip, but it’s probably now or never for her to prove that she’s at least as good as her sister.

She should certainly improve for the recent racing experience, should strip fit, should enjoy the ground, the new trip looks a possibility on pedigree, and the race, if you’re prepared to take on the favourite, wide open.

10pts win – Mayfair @ 8/1

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