Macroeconomic Summary – France
The four key sectors – Real, External, Fiscal and Financial
In the real sector, the real GDP of France grew at 1.3% in 2015 from 0.6% in the previous year, 2014. The country is projected to grow at 1.5% in 2016. The domestic demand (Consumption + Investment) contributed 1.5% to the real GDP and the net exports stood at -0.3% resulting in a trade deficit. Nominal GDP for 2015 stands at 2181 billion euros and is projected at 2231 billion euros in 2016. Inflation remains low at 0.1 and 0.2 respectively for the years 2015 and 2016.
The fiscal deficit of the government stood at 3.6% in 2015 and is expected to drop down to 3.3% in 2016. 2% of the 3.6% amounts for structural deficit, while the remaining 1.6% could be classified cyclical deficit. Public debt continues to rise reaching 96.1% of the GDP at the end of 2015 and projected at 97.1% of GDP in 2016.
On the external front, the exports accounted for about 21.1% & projected at 20.2% of GDP in 2015 & 2016 respectively, while imports accounted for 22.2% & projected at 21.8% in the same years. This led to a trade and current account deficit of 1.7% and 0.2% in 2015 & 2016 respectively. The capital account accounts for 0.1% of the GDP in 2015, while the financial account, which includes the direct investment into the country, the portfolio investment, reserve assets etc., accounts for -0.5% of the GDP in 2015.
On top of the capital and financial accounts mentioned above, the total foreign exchange reserves of France stand at US $48.8 billion. The 10 year yield on government bonds have steadily declined from 2.5% in 2012 to 0.8% in 2016 indicative of the high rates of unemployment over the last 4 years.
Current and future challenges to the economy
France faces two central policy challenges –
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To support a more rapid creation of new private sector jobs. Private sector job creation has remained lackluster and unemployment rate has hovered around 10%. Much of France’s unemployment is structural, presenting a major social and economic challenge. Those without jobs for more than an year numbered at around 2.5 million. The unemployment problems of France could be attributed to the following – Centralized labor agreements for over 700 branches, long judicial procedures around dismissals, a high minimum wage, easy access to unemployment insurance and benefits. The Loi Travail or the “El Khomri Law” increases the scope for company level labor agreements and further reduce judicial uncertainties around dismissals. But this has met with strong resistance among laborers resulting in massive strikes for months together in Paris.
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To ensure the sustainability of public finances via more efficient government spending growth. The government has committed to a sharp reduction in real spending growth (a.k.a Stability Program) over the medium term, yet structural fiscal adjustment fell from an annual average of 1% of GDP in 2011-13 to 0.3% in 2014-15 and is projected to be around 0 in 2016-18. This slowdown reflects the effects of tax cuts and failure to cut real spending growth. If this structural spending were to continue to grow at its current pace, structural deficit would rise to 3.1% of GDP by 2021, against a baseline projection of 1.2% of GDP. But, more public spending in the future seems inevitable in the wake of recent terror attacks in Paris, Nice. Even if necessary measures are taken, France’s Stability Program could be impeded by 2 situations simulated by the IMF: a protracted growth stagnation in the euro area and a severe global recession with financial stress.
Objectives of the policymaker in the present situation
Policy makers’ objectives in the current scenario must be twofold:
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Fostering private sector job creation and
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Efficient spending of public finances.
Policy prescriptions in the present context
- Reform unemployment laws to strengthen work incentives. The El Khomri law is a step forward in this case. Under the current law, a person is eligible for benefits after working for just 4 months. France also offers one of the highest caps on unemployment benefits in the Euro zone at about 7000 euros per month. Also, an analysis by Conseil d’Analyse Economique shows an increasing number of workers alternating between ultra short term contracts and short term unemployment within a month, receiving a total income close to the full monthly wage based on the current unemployment benefit formula. Hence, lengthening the minimum contribution period to avail unemployment benefits, changing the formula for calculating unemployment benefits to balance the treatment of part time work and alternating short-term work contracts are steps in the right path.
- Enhance the existing skill set of the unemployed workforce by providing them with training that matches the skills sought by employers.
- Reduce the wage bill of the French civil service, which, at 13% of the GDP is one of the highest in EU peer countries. Slowing recruitment and limiting wage drifts are ways to go about streamlining the civil service.
- Increase the redistributive efficiency of social benefits to at least the EU average. This would reduce income inequality at a fiscal cost that’s lower by 3.5% of the GDP.
- Increase the effective retirement age, thereby reducing pension liabilities and generating savings of around 0.2-0.3% of GDP.
Price controls in Venezuela
The law limiting costs, prices and profits was designed specifically to prevent over-pricing, speculation and other abuses against consumer rights which have been occurring in Venezuela. It was enforced by President Nicolas Maduro apparently to counter growing problems with Venezuela’s currency control system and economic imbalances created by anti-government business sectors that led to high inflation and shortage of some basic products. The objective was to establish a “harmonious and balanced” development of the national economy. Prior to this, the Hugo Chavez government also set price controls in an apparent effort to “counter inflation and protect the poor”. The result : It gave birth to a flourishing currency and commodity black market and ended up hurting the class of citizens that it intended to protect.
There exists a penetrating black market in Venezuela, the roots of which could be traced back to 2003 when the government adopted a fixed dollar exchange rate regime to prevent huge overseas capital flights owing to political uncertainties within the country. Ever since then, the currency has been fixed and adjusted very rarely. This, immediately, gave birth to a black market where the exchange rate for bolivars was 2-3 times the official exchange rate.
An unintended consequence of fixing the exchange rate gave rise to the travel currency fraud. Under this scam, the citizens travel abroad with official-rate dollars, receive their dollars in cash by swiping their card abroad, and instead of spending it, they return to Venezuela to sell the dollars on the black market for over 10 times the money the actually paid for them. Early 2013, the official exchange rate was fixed at 6.3 bolivars per dollar and the black market rate was 18 bolivars per dollar. This created an ever-widening gap and greater incentives to profit from that gap. The black market exchange rate increased exponentially from 100 bolivars per dollar in late 2014 to 800 bolivars in late 2015 while the official exchange rate was pegged at 6.7 bolivars per dollar. This is the currency black market.
During the 2008 global financial crisis, a lot of restrictions were placed on the list of items imported into Venezuela. Thus, fewer goods could be imported at the official exchange rate leading to more and more importers using the black market for imports, which drove up inflation. Inflation spiked from 13.7% from 2006 to 31.4% in 2008 and subsided to 20-21% between 2010-2012.
In the commodities sector, the state established a “fair price” for all products and the state agency, National Superintendency for the Defence of Socioeconomic Rights (Sundde), would monitor importers, producers, suppliers and retailers to ensure they adhere to the limits set for these “fair prices”. The commodities black market also grew at a feverish pace given the “fair price” impositions on essential commodities. Hustlers known as Buhoneros sold their goods at prices more than the government-imposed fair prices. This made it all the more difficult for poor people to purchase essential commodities. It is indeed ironic that essential commodities are not available at fair prices only because of the government-imposed “fair prices” on them.
The price control imposed on gasoline ensured that one can fill up an entire tank of gas in Venezuela just for a few pence. They would then cross the border at Colombia and sell it there for 15 pounds sterling. This gasoline smuggling has been a preferred profession of engineers, lawyers, doctors, architects etc. and their argument is that they can earn in 3-4 days smuggling gasoline what they earn over a month as professionals in Venezuela. The subsidies to gasoline alone cost the government $12 billion.
While the root of these problems was politically motivated, it would have served the government well to have maintained a floating exchange rate regime. This would have devalued the Bolivar, but at least it would not have interfered with market dynamics. It also would not have lead to the fair pricing regime, which turned out to be anything but fair. And the much pronounced black market in currency and commodities would have simply been a shadow of what it is today.
Sources :
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11716
http://www.marketplace.org/2016/03/23/world/resource-curse/day-out-black-market-venezuela
The perils of a majoritarian democracy
While the brouhaha over Brexit is yet to settle down, it is worth pondering over the inefficiency of a simple majoritarian democracy. The Brexit vote stands testimony to this inefficacy. While a simple majority (>50%) may well be the simplest way to ascertain public sentiment, it does not allow for a robust representation of minority voices. Democracy, after all, is all about ensuring equal representation of people. It is all the more important for equal representation, especially in a referendum like the Brexit that tends to have an economic impact on countries all over the world. Unlike the Presidential or Prime Ministerial elections that happen once every 4 or 5 years, the Brexit referendum is a one-time affair. When xenophobes like Nigel Farage, Michael Gove or Boris Johnson are able to induce fear psychosis among gullible moderates who could be swayed to their advantage, it clearly exposes the flaw in a simple majoritarian system. After all, given time, there are good chances these moderates could swing in favour of the other[Remain] side. As Shashi Tharoor aptly writes in this bit, “Referenda change the basis of national decision-making from politics to popular sentiment, and the sources of judgement from experts to demagogues”.
The unstated assumption for any referendum is that the people are rational enough to reason the pros and cons of the issue under consideration and draw a sensible conclusion. If we could just introduce an iota of doubt to this assumption, the whole argument of organising referenda falls apart. While self-satisfying rationality is an inherent concept in economics, it is not so in politics. Were we to assume everyone acts rationally[in political terms] while keeping the larger interest of the society in mind, there would not be any thefts or murders in the country. One of the main political motivations behind the government imposing prohibition on liquor is based on the assumption that humans are not politically rational. While serving one’s self-interest is fundamental to economics, politics is about placating the society as a whole. This calls into question the entire rationale behind organising a referendum.
It is also worth musing over the supposedly representative democracy of the UK. When MP’s are elected primarily to represent their constituencies in the Parliament, should it not be left to the wisdom of these people in decisions as huge as the Brexit referendum? An elected parliamentarian acts a single unifying voice of his constituency and it must be left to him/her to exercise prudence while judging policies or issues and to not be swayed by the mercurial emotions that prevail at that time. It makes no sense for elected representatives to abjure responsibilities for which they were elected in the first place. The civil society always has the option of overthrowing them in the subsequent elections if the parliamentarian had acted against public will. This clearly provides enough room for the vacillating public sentiment, which was clearly lacking in the Brexit referendum.
So what could be some possible solutions to avoid another disaster like the Brexit? One suggestion, if countries still want to delegate matters of huge ramifications to the public, is to at least have a supermajority of two-thirds of the public vote. This allows for the minority voice to be heard to an extent. However, the counter argument to this is that – this gives power to a one-third minority to suppress a majority. In that event, probably a three-fifths majority, as followed in the UN Security Council resolutions could be adopted. Another option is to simply let the elected representatives do their job of deciding on issues of great import. Again, a simple 50% majority does not hold water even at the parliament. The referendum should be supported by at least two-thirds of the parliament. All constitutional amendments require a two-third supermajority in both houses of parliament in India and in the US congress too. Another suggestion, albeit a dilatory one, as elucidated in this piece by Neera Chandhoke, is to have three referenda over a span of six years. She goes on to explain this with an example of the Swiss canton Jura, in which the predominantly French speaking catholics of Northern Jura consistently voted on three referenda held in 1959, 1974 and 1978 to leave Berne and form a separate canton, while the Protestant dominated Southern Jura decided to remain with Berne. Finally, the outcome of a referendum could just be used as a tool to gauge public sentiment. It doesn’t necessarily have to be binding.
An Indian version of Brexit would be to throw referenda for, say, whether India should leave the SAARC or whether India should leave the BRICS. It certainly sounds like a ludicrous idea and it is one. Similarly, the Brexit vote must have happened in the parliament within closed doors rather than out in the public. Now that the people have delivered their verdict, what will happen remains to be seen, or as the French would predict, Que sera, sera [What will be, will be].
India’s growth story in the post liberalisation era
Another one on macroeconomics! As I was reading through the IMF Financial Policy Programme[FPP] manual as part of the Fundamentals to Macroeconomics elective, I wondered how a graphical representation of India’s growth story in the post-liberalisation era would have looked like. So I set out to look for and plot the relationship between the Nominal GDP figures from 1991-2015, which measures GDP at current prices, the GDP deflator, which measures price levels with 2004 as the base year[deflator=100 for the year 2004] and the real GDP figures, which is growth at constant prices[2004 prices in our case].
This graph below represents the nominal growth of the Indian economy in the last 25 years. As we see, there has been a steady growth and a rather sharp one post 2003. But does it translate to real growth? Let’s try to figure that out. Real growth can be calculated by dividing the nominal value over the deflator. The second graph shows the rise of the GDP deflator over 25 years.
The below graph superimposes the nominal growth over the real growth. This is tellingly revealing, if you look at the growth in the nominal GDP between 2013-2015, it has increased by about $425 billion while the real GDP has increased by just about $81 billion. Compared to the previous few years(2011-13) that saw a dip in the real GDP growth, reining in the CPI by adopting hawkish monetary policies starting September 2013 has, to some extent, contributed to the slow rise in real GDP. On the other hand, the years 2006-07 & 2008-10 recorded a prolific, almost parallel, growth in the nominal as well as the real GDP. Wonder why? These were the halcyon years just before the 2008 subprime mortgage financial crisis in the US. The Indian government was already on a spending spree via welfare schemes such as the MNREGA and huge farm loan waivers that led to high growth rates, but little did they know[actually they knew it very well] that winter was coming. However, the expansionary fiscal stance adopted by the government at that time served the country well than a conservative fiscal stance would have.
In response to the mortgage crisis, between 2008-10, the government unleashed economic stimulus packages on 7th December 2008, 2nd January 2009 and 24th February 2009. Other actions included an overall central excise duty cut of 4 percent, ramping up additional planned expenditure of about Rs.200 billion, further state government borrowings for planned expenditure amounting to around Rs. 300 billion, interest subsidies for export finance to support certain export oriented industries, a further 2 percent reduction of central excise duties and service tax for export industries (that is a total 6 percent central excise reduction). The impact of these measures is estimated to be around 1.8 percent of GDP in 2008-09. If the increase in public expenditure across the budgets of 2007-08 and 2008-09 is taken together it amounted to about 3 percent of GDP (Kumar and Soumya, 2010). This increased public spending in turn catapulted the economy to staggering growth rates of about 8.5% in 2009.
The years 2007-08, no prizes for guessing, even saw a fall in the nominal GDP largely owing the 2008 financial crisis, which is clearly visible in the steep decline in growth rates during that period. The years 2010-13, also, saw a fall in the real GDP growth. This could be largely attributed to the persistently high inflation at the time owing to increased public spending, or rather the delay in rolling back the 2008 stimulus packages. CPI hovered close to and a little over 10% during that time.
The below graph is plotted by running the real GDP values through the natural logarithmic function(ln or log to the base e) or log transformation of economic variables as it is called. This is all the more convenient because the slope of the logarithmic function of a variable is equal to the growth rate of the original variable. In GDP terms, the slope of the logarithmic function of the real GDP data points is equal to the growth rate of the real GDP. The slope is essentially the first difference in the log of the real GDP, which is plotted in the graph below. The almost vertical fall in the 2007-08 period are plain as daylight in this plot. The steady growth in real GDP post 2013 is also clearly visible in this graph.
The mean of the first differences, which gives us the average real growth rate of India over the last 25 years stands at 2.36%. Just to ensure I didn’t commit any calculation errors with the first differences method, I computed the Computed Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) of the real GDP data and it yielded a perfect 2.36%.
P.S : I take full responsibility for any analytical anomalies or transgressions. Data points were plotted in MS Excel. Subsequent calculations for natural logarithm and first differences were also performed in MS Excel.
Sources:
Fiscal policy in India: Trends and Trajectory, Supriyo De.
GDP figures : http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-growth-of-india.php
Deflator figures : http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/India/GDP_Deflator/
Interest towards Interest rates
The topic of interest rate has never ceased to stir up a debate in the monetary policy circles. In recent times, there’s always speculation as to whether the RBI will reduce interest rates further. Analysts go to the extent of labelling Governor Rajan a hawk for his purportedly hawkish stance on monetary policy and a dove at times he chooses to slash the repurchase rate. Just a little bit of a primer as to what the repurchase rate means – It is the interest rate at which the scheduled commercial banks borrow from the RBI on a short term[overnight/tenor] basis. In return, the banks have to pledge government securities as collateral with the RBI. So, for example, if a bank wants to borrow Rs.10 crores[repo auctions begin at a minimum of Rs.5 crores and multiples of 5 crores thereafter], it has to pledge government securities worth Rs.10 crore as collateral and agree to repurchase them for Rs.10 crores + Rs.17808 [a day’s policy repo rate at 6.5% for overnight repos]. Hence the name “repurchase rate” and in short, repo rate a.k.a interest rate.
Taking this a little deeper, the government securities pledged by the bank as collateral cannot come from its SLR [Statutory Liquidity Ratio]. SLR right now stands at 21.25% after Governor Rajan slashed it by 25 basis points from 21.5% in the April 2016 monetary policy review. SLR, a part of the reserve ratios[the other one being the CRR], is the share of Net Demand and Time Liabilities[NDTL, e.g – Savings bank account, Fixed Deposit bank account etc.] that must be held by banks in the form of assets such as government securities, gold or cash. CRR is currently at 4%, which means that banks have to maintain 4% of its NDTL as cash reserves with the RBI. These ratios ensure that the bank holds ~25% of its NDTL assets with the RBI at all times, so a bank becoming insolvent is only an adverse possibility. Also, in a macroeconomic sense, these are some important factors that control liquidity in the economy.
Let us try to understand exactly that – how liquidity is maintained in the economy. The Government of India issues securities as means to fund its deficit/raise capital. The RBI buys/sells these securities from/to banks via Open Market Operations[OMOs]. If RBI feels there’s a lot of money in the system, they sell these securities thereby sucking out excess liquidity. The banks in turn buy these securities since they need them to pledge as collateral for repurchase operations. The liquidity lent to the banks is in turn lent as bank loans to customers. This process, in turn affects the money supply in the system on the whole. Now the theory here is that, in times of low interest rates, the banks are on a borrowing spree from the RBI. This increases liquidity in the system when banks increase their transmission via lending. Extending the theory, this puts a lot of money in people’s hands, which increases their consumption capacity. When consumption increases, the overall demand for goods in the market increases, as a result of which prices of commodities increase. This is what we call inflation. This is the rationale behind the Consumer Price Index[CPI] shooting up every time the RBI pares interest rates.
The inverse of this process is precisely what leads the RBI to increase interest rates primarily to contain inflation. Sensing more than required liquidity in the system, RBI increases policy repo rate to counter inflation. Banks borrow less as a result of this as they do not want to pay a higher interest rate on their borrowings. This, in effect, leads to less lending by the banks. Ergo, less money for the public to spend. The lesser the purchasing power of the public, the lesser is the demand for commodities, which in turn leads to a fall in their prices. This is what we call deflation or disinflation. It is, again, reflected in the CPI which tends to drop when there’s disinflation.
Developing countries like India face the prospect of high inflation as increased public or private spending to boost the economy is always concomitant with rising prices. Suppressing inflation by increasing interest rates tends to stall growth as an offshoot, thereby decelerating the economy. But inflation is directly correlated to immediate electoral gains. And politicians, as they are wont to do, are inclined towards immediate results and are averse to anything that blights their popular opinion. In fact, the former Finance Minister P.Chidambaram, after the drubbing the UPA took in the 2014 general elections, remarked that more than the corruption scandals that prevailed at the time, it was the impact of high inflation[~10%] that caused the UPA’s electoral defeat. The economists are stuck between a rock and a hard place, in the sense that they have the pressure of their political masters and that of their own performance. More often than not, the prudent thing to do is lost somewhere in the interstices between the rock and the hard place.
The hunt for the next UNSG and what it means for the world
Although overshadowed to a large extent by the US presidential race 2016, the selection process for the next UNSG is well underway, having already completed one round of informal dialogues between the candidates and the UN member states on the 29th March 2016 and a subsequent round scheduled for the 7th June. As opposed to the hitherto archaic closed-door selection process, primarily by the P5 of the Security Council, this year marks a democratic shift by opening up the selection ritual to the UN member states and civil societies. It is indeed heartening to see 9 year old kids pose questions to the candidates in the fray for the UN top job.
It is common knowledge that the US is the biggest donor to the UN, [~22% of the UN regular budget] so much so that the US features as a separate category in itself among “Other major contributors”, “Middle contributors” and “Rest of the Membership” in the UN budget contribution chart. Given this leverage Washington holds on the UN, it is imperative that there exist a cordial relationship between the two. But Beltway’s apathy towards the UN has largely remained a fact, given the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2011 incursion in Libya to name a few. It is coincidental that the US Presidential elections and the UNSG elections fall just 2 months apart this year. The consequences of the outcomes of these two elections would probably fall at the two extreme ends of the black-white spectrum, leaving very little gray area in the middle. The upshot of these elections could be as far reaching as to threaten the very existence of the UN, or to strip away the last vestiges of power it possesses, if it does manage to survive. On the flip side, it could bring about an evolutionary change vis-à-vis women’s empowerment and probably a little more authority to the UN. As is always the case, the benedictions and the maledictions balance each other out and ultimately, one prevails over the other.
Let’s analyze a few important combinations of outcomes surrounding the UNSG and the US Presidential election. First one, to start off on a pleasant note, a Democratic President or the first woman POTUS [read Hillary Clinton] and a woman UNSG, another first of its kind, would probably be the most desirable outcome for two reasons – women at the helm of an international organization and a powerful country would truly be a hallmark of how far we have, as a civilization, progressed in promoting women’s rights and gender equality. Also, that the US would choose a woman president following its first ever black President would strongly signify that discrimination basis gender and colour is a relic of a bygone age. This would set a huge precedent to the rest of the democratic countries around the world, and India could certainly take a leaf out of such an outcome to encourage women’s participation in contemporary politics and policymaking even further. To that extent, there have already been 5 women nominees out of 11 for the post of UNSG, 3 of whom are from the Eastern Europe since it’s their turn to nominate a UNSG in the informal cycle that the UN maintains and it also happens to be a region that has never produced a UNSG.
The second combination, a Republican President [read Trump Presidency] and a woman/man UNSG – the isolationist and xenophobic rhetoric that has prevailed Trump’s campaign, not to mention the Republican tendency to flaunt the country’s military prowess, are antithetical to the UN values. When Ted Cruz, a former 2016 Republican Party presidential candidate, wanted to nominate someone like John Bolton to be his Secretary of the State, that should have sent alarm bells ringing at Turtle Bay. Bolton, a former USUN [The US Permanent Representative to the UN], is famous to have remarked, “If you lopped off the top 10 floors of the UN, you would not see a difference in the world policy”. I will leave it to your imagination as to how a Trump Secretary of State’s interests would align with the UN.
The UN might face its toughest moments under a Trump Presidency. His isolationist rhetoric, if implemented, is capable of creating power vacuums in regions with heavy US military presence. Now it would be left to the UN to forfend any internal strife or conflicts in those sensitive areas. It is indeed ironic that the UN would be deprived of key resources just when it would need them the most.
P.S : A global campaign, 1 for 7 billion[www.1for7billion.org], supported by various NGO’s and individuals across the world is campaigning to get the best UN Secretary General. Their mission has found acceptance among the likes of Kofi Annan and several other international organizations like Amnesty International etc.
The four letter conundrum
After a recent bout of unpleasant conversations, I feel compelled to clarify a few things on what seems to be the general thought process behind legalizing LGBT laws by the SCOTUS.
First off, to all those broad and open minded individuals who changed their display pictures to the vibgyor rainbow theme on FaceBook : Kudos Folks! You people have been true modernists in leading the propaganda for the LGBT community. But [There’s always a but], I just have one searching question for all you people: When you say you support LGBT, what exactly do you mean by that? Is it that you respect the sexual orientation of an individual? (or) Do you support the whole school of thought of being an L or a G or a B or a T? [I’m sure guys would be highly supportive of an L and a B, but that ain’t really my point] Mind you, there’s an obviously simple difference between the two. If your answer was YES to the first question, then you just respect an individual and NOT his school of thought, in which case, you don’t necessarily support LGBT. You don’t support the concept for what it truly is. Your apparently genuine concern to respect a person is clouding your judgement about what you truly support. Think about it for a second. We look at the societal stigma that surrounds being an LGBT, the oppression they face in the rigmarole of life, the way they’re ostracized from the society and somewhere deep down inside us we feel sorry for them and it’s precisely this feeling that takes the fore when we express our so-called “support” to them. To draw an analogy, you could be good friends with a person supporting a particular political ideology even though you’re disinclined to support the ideology itself.
Coming to my personal stance on this issue, I wonder what Charles Darwin, the proponent of the modern theory of evolution would have to say about Homo sapiens being homosexuals. One of the core principles of evolution is the survival of the fittest, something that ensures the sustenance of human race through the generations to come. Being an LGT completely defies evolution in that particular sense. Let’s face it, we can’t turn to the homosexuals in case the earth was struck by a meteorite and there’s a universal crisis to repopulate the earth. On the other hand, homosexuality probably should be encouraged just for the mere fact that it acts as a natural population control mechanism. Especially in countries like India and China where population grows by the minute. But I’m compelled to look at the other side of the coin too. Being gay is simply natural to some people. They cannot comprehend how it feels to be straight, much the same way we don’t comprehend the way it feels to be gay. And we can never fully support something we don’t understand. This is where the humanity that’s innate to humans comes to the fore. The least we could do is to be civil to people’s choices and liberties and to not view them with a judgmental eye. After all, that’s what being human is all about?
Strictly for ASOIAF fanatics..
So I’ve finally decided to take a brush to the virtual dust mound that has settled in this page. And what better way to do it but write about the one thing that I’ve been obsessed with in the last couple months – A Song of Ice and Fire by Mr.George.R.R.Martin!
For the uninitiated who still wish to continue reading, ASOIAF is a fictional saga (or epic fantasy in GRRM’s words) about the battle for the Iron Throne, seat of the King of seven kingdoms called Westeros. At first look, it may sound like yet another fantasy novel, but this one takes the wind of out of you with the enormity and intricacy of the plot, the never ending manipulative characters, the knights who value honor beyond anything else, the houses of lords – great and small, the rich history behind each of these houses, the epic battles that spans across the whole continent, the dragons, the kingsguard, the hedge knights, the sellswords, the free cities, the High Valyrian language, the magical places that are brought to our imagination through GRRM’s words, the depth of characters, the stupendous screenplay and the list just never ends.. I could go on and on about what makes this a truly *epic* fantasy, but I still probably won’t be able to enough justice to it.
I first chanced upon the mention of this book god knows where (a terrible memory – typical me!), but nevertheless I made a mental note that day to order the first of the 7 part series, called Game of Thrones (there’s also an HBO TV series for these books), given the way people were selling this book. So I did and finished reading it as fast as I could just to see what the fuss was all about. To be honest, I was never quite taken by the book. It had all the necessary elements to make a good fantasy novel – but it never struck me as something that would be wildly imaginative with a deeply intricate and tightly woven plot, as I’ve come to realize today.
A brief hiatus (read 1 year) was in sight before I thought I’d start with the second part of the series (called A Clash of Kings), but I did possess a copy of the book all along. It was just that I wasn’t able to coax the reptilian part of my brain to get myself started with the book. It finally happened one fine day and I ended up reading close to 200 pages in one sitting. And that’s how the whirlwind of a journey into the magical lands of Essos and Westeros started. Unputdownable might be the right word to use here, since all I remember doing in my waking hours (except at work, well maybe a little bit at work too :P) was to sift through the endless pages of these books. It doesn’t come as a surprise that I was able to finish the rest of the books in a short span of time (1 – 1.5 months I guess, would’ve been shorter if I didn’t have to work every day :/). Well, it was long overdue anyway, given the fact that the first book in the series was published way back in 1995. I was probably still struggling with my alphabets back then! And the latest one (5th book of the series) published in 2011 with 2 more yet to be released.
Post-reading ASOIAF : This phase is a little annoying, as we’ve to wait for another 2 more years before the next book comes along. But thanks to some of our over-zealous readers who predict the future state of affairs in the book by labelling them “spoilers”. Truth be told, It’s mostly because of them that I’ve come to appreciate the complexity of the plot, the labyrinth of hidden agendas, ulterior motives fraught with prophecies and clues in some of the arid parts of the book, which are easy to slip by the eye of a casual/first-time reader. A thunderclap goes inside the mind when some of the not-so-obvious things at first sight become ever-so-obvious – only that we didn’t have the mind to look at it. I was japing with my friend that a good part of the next 8-10 years of our lives will be spent reading/writing/analyzing spoilers, provided GRRM publishes the last 2 books of the series within 10 years (I pray he does!).
As I’ve said, there’s a HBO TV series for these books as well for people who are interested, but I’d personally prefer the books because as the saying goes, “A person who doesn’t read lives just one life, while a person who reads lives a thousand lives”.
Colors of life..
Upon R.K’s request..
The following tale appeared from someone who had worked at the Whole Foods store in Palo Alto a few blocks from Jobs’ home: “I was moving carts one afternoon when I saw this silver Mercedes parked in a handicapped spot. Steve Jobs was inside screaming at his car phone. This was right before the first iMac was unveiled and I’m pretty sure I could make out, “Not. F***ing. Blue. Enough!!!”
That was the obsessive perfectionist Steve Jobs shrieking about the importance and value addition a simple primary color could make. Starting from our shoes to the private jet (just go with the flow..) we’d all like to buy, we too are obsessed with colors. It adds a whole new perception to life. After all, there would have been no fun if the world we see was completely in grayscale (ask any animal, they’d vouch for this or even better, watch a black and white movie).
Unlike most other things in life, colors are something that are inexplicable in nature. How do you even know, when you think blue — when you say blue — that you are talking about the same blue as anyone else? There is no way on earth you can describe how a color looks like to a blind person, much like the way you can’t explain anyone the multitude of emotions experienced each day, be it happy or sad or excited or nervous. I believe the human tendency to associate emotions with colors derive their roots from the mysterious inexplicability of either of them. We can vividly show the way we feel or what a color looks like, but we can never expound or explicate them. Emotions trigger a change in the color of life, much like the way seasons trigger a transformation in color of nature, which alters our perception of color, and colors are strongly affiliated to emotions in our lives. Isn’t it a bit recursive?
This “color psychology” is used widely in today’s advertising and marketing world to strategically manoeuvre your brain to elicit a desired reaction and create a bond with the brand or product. What’s the first brand/logo that comes to your mind when you think of the color blue? Facebook? Don’t be surprised. According to studies, blue is the favourite color of most people and among all age groups. It is said to create the sensation of trust and security. Lighter blues are calming while darker blues symbolize professionalism and sincerity. Oh.. and also because Mark Zuckerberg is red-green color blind, which, by default makes him see blue the best among the primary colors (Good for him, right?). All this being said, have you ever noticed the color of the “Sign up” button on the home page of Facebook? If not, go take a look now. It’s green! Apparently, green simulates a sense of affirmation on people’s minds and also for a very simple reason that it attracts the eye. Looks like Mark did his fair share of homework on color psychology in marketing Facebook? And it also goes to show that brand recognition takes a tiny precedence over his color blindness(Obviously!). Pretty neat and interesting.
Talking about psychology and colors, I’m bound to write about a phenomenon called synesthesia, a neurological condition in which the stimulation of one cognitive pathway involuntarily elicits a reaction from a second cognitive pathway. In simple words, when you’re made to look at a set of numbers, your eyes send sensory input to your brain (the first cognitive reaction) that helps identifying the numbers. Synesthetes (Fyi, this is what they call people who experience synesthesia) automatically perceive a color associated to each number (the second cognitive reaction). The fact that people can conjure numbers by looking at a spectrum of colors makes it a lot easier for them to memorize numbers! Fascinating, right? There’s another type where people associate musical tones with colors, called sound-color synesthesia. The concept is explained beautifully in Dr. Vilayanur.S.Ramachandran’s book on the human brain called “The Tell-Tale Brain”. The world of colors gets a new lease of life, with synesthetes putting them to use on a whole new level! This is a case where they literally add color to their lives.
These are few random and assorted perceptions of colors in our lives(both metaphorically and literally!). Finishing with a lesser known line.. “Colors. Would it be green or blue today? Maybe white—my favorite. A dark voice in the back of my mind offered no color at all as an alternative. I smothered that voice. The days of no color were simply too hard to bear. I needed color today.”
After all, at the end of the day when you close your eyes, the whole world turns black!
Gold diggers..
“Oh, we don’t import gold at all..” I heard an Irish national say earlier this week at work. Of course it doesn’t come off as a run-of-the-mill dialogue to someone who belongs to a country that imports close to USD 57 billion of gold(If the sparkling brides-to-be of our country still don’t realize it, I’m talking about India!) I never fully believed it myself, so I started by doing some basic research on the export/import of Ireland.. and well, I had to believe it now. Apparently the country has very small deposits of gold, but I couldn’t find one place that talks about gold contributing even a fraction of a percentage to the country’s import.
In a parallel and alternate universe, we reserve 30% of the gold imported into our country with the customs department and another 30% to be mandatorily reserved by the merchants for re-exporting it back. In a world where a country’s power is determined by the amount of petroleum and gold that’s being imported into/exported out of the country, it was really surprising to hear a country that’s entirely oblivious to importing gold. Another fact to bear in mind is the entire population of Ireland is not even half of Bangalore’s population, which is definitely a contributing factor to the country’s growth. It’s a stark comparison to make, but it was definitely pleasing to hear one country whose economy is independent of gold.
Topical Storm.. 