Understanding variance and not encountered

This post will help you to understand the rules of variance, the concept of ‘not encountered‘, and how to use this understanding to create system bias to win in games with negative expectation.

Games with negative expectations are beatable if the casino rules allow sufficient bet spread. If you rely on ‘not encountered‘ to create system bias to win, you will win 100% of your set of series. All methods that rely on ‘not encountered’ to win require a huge bankroll to win as little as you can.

In my opinion, these methods are not suitable for everybody. It is also not suitable as a source of money. It is more to brag, show-off or self-gratification. It is more like what Neil Armstrong said when he landed on the moon, A Small Step for A Man, A Big Leap in Mankind.

The greatest drawback of this approach is that it is not scalable. It is also prone to casino counter-measures. You have to win as little as you can. I have already explained this in one of my post. Check it out.

How to win in regular casino games.

Remember, learning from this post is more important than actual playing and actual winning. It is the foundation of professional gambling.

To understand variance and ‘not encountered‘, you must have a thorough understanding of these two rules.

Rule 1 : Rule of Percentage Swing

Rules of percentage swing said that the percentage swing decreases proportional to the number of bets. In the short run, when you play very few bets, you can encounter 1 wins 18 losses out of 19 bets, or 1 win 24 losses out of 25 bets for a net loss of 17 and 23 times respectively. In terms of percentage it is 1700% and 2300%. But it is impossible to encounter 10 wins and 180 losses out of 190 bets or 10 wins and 240 losses out of 250 bets. This ratio does not happen. Losing 180 out of 190 and losing 230 out of 240 bets are not encountered. In other words, this is the concept of ‘not encountered’. As you can see, it is indeed, a very reliable concept.

Rule 2: Rules of Absolute Swing

Rules of absolute swing said that the net absolute number of loss bets increases in proportion to the increase in the number of bets. If you play flat bet 2200 times, you can encounter 1000 wins and 1200 losses, a net loss of 200 times, but only 20% out. But the absolute number of bets lost is now 200 times, no more 17 times or 23 times. In other words, the percentage decreases to a low percentage of 20%, no more 1700% and 2300% as in rule 1.

So a system that wins 40% of the even-odd bets to conclude a series will always catch up and win. I describe this as smart chasing of losses. Whenever you win 40% of the bets and lose 60% of the bets, you will conclude the series with a decent win. You will notice that win 40% of the bets and lose 60% of the bets is 50% out. You will also notice that between rule 1 and rule 2 the absolute swing goes from 17 and 23 to 200, and the percentage swings drop from thousands (1700% and 2300%) to 20%.

To create system bias to win in gambling, your methods must be able to handle the problem areas in both rule 1 and rule 2 with ease, yet come out with decent wins.
First, you have to define your target percentage. I find winning 40% of the bets is optimal and more balanced play. You conclude your series whenever you win 40% of the bets. However, you can target any other number like 35% or 45%.

You will also notice that when you play cancellation methods, you will usually conclude many series with relative ease, then suddenly come one problem series. Your goal here is to play a set of six series simultaneously so that the problem of the problem series will be passed over to the easier series when you re-balance the scale every now and then. You will continue to do this until you win 40% of the bets. When that happen, you conclude your series with win goal achieved.

When enough bets are made, the win-lose ratio always gravitate towards 50%, so you will always get your 40%. Fourty percent is ideal for decent wins because for every set of 50% win-lose you will win 10% minus casino odds. However, the number of bets you take to win will vary depending on the percentage of bets that you win. If you win 55% of the bets, you will win with fewer bets. If you win 45% of the bets, you will take longer and win with more bets.
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Here are the four methods that satisfy both rule 1 and rule 2 for a 100% win.

1. HP Johnson Guaranteed System satisfied the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2

http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/?p=310

2. Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas Touch System also satisfy the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2

How The Late Arthur Irwin Bruce was Barred from the Five Largest Casinos in the UK:

How to modify labourche system to create system bias to win in gambling

3. The classical Monte Carlo roulette system also satisfy the criteria for rule 1 and rule 2. Remember I use this system to win $160,000 over 10 months. I will elaborate more on this in a separate post.

Smart Chasing of Losses: How I win $160,000 over ten months

4. I have also modified the fibonacci system to win $1000 over 2000 bets playing $10 baccarat machine in Resort World Sentosa, Singapore. The win rate is 50 cents per bet. I will elaborate more on this in a separate post.

You can also combine a number of systems that synergize with one another.

KEY POINTS

1. Games with negative expectations are beatable if the casino rules allow sufficient bet spread.
2. You must understand rules of percentage swing and rules of absolute swing before you can understand the concept of not encountered.
3. It is possible to create system bias to win 100% of the series in games with negative expectation
4. HP Johnson Guaranteed System and Arthur Irwin Bruce Midas System are known historically to beat games of negative expectations.

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