We nearly have an upward cross on the 30-min RSI:

prophet.net

UPDATE: Of course, the other alternative is that each little bounce gets sold and the oversold condition lasts for another day or so and takes us down another 1-2%, as in the decline from 1100 in early February. The easy answer to this problem is to keep ratcheting down your stops or set a loose trailing stop.

UPDATE 6:20: Well, we got a bit of a bounce in the afternoon, then a sell-off into the close, followed by a rebound in the futures after-hours. If this were like January, we might gap up tomorrow and rally to challenge the highs, but RSI is looking a lot weaker and lots of other markets are acting bearish. Bonds in particular had a very strong day and did not give back any of their rally:

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On the 30-day view of SPX, you can see that RSI is deteriorating faster than in January, so perhaps any correction of today’s drop doesn’t challenge the highs:

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If indeed this is intermediate wave 3 (of minor 1 of primary 3), as a third wave, we shouldn’t expect much in the way of countertrend action.